Re: Hurricane Ernesto
The latest from wunderground.com
The track forecast
The models have come into better alignment now. They unanimously predict a stronger trough of low pressure than originally forecast will act to pull Ernesto northwards across Florida, and then northeastwards out to sea. The exact highest risk Florida landfall is difficult to pin down so far in advance, and everywhere from Miami to Pensacola is at risk. It appears now that New Orleans can breathe easy, as Ernesto should miss that city by a wide margin. Residents of North Carolina should be alert, as Ernesto may brush the Outer Banks after traversing Florida.
The storm surge forecast
The waters along the west coast of Florida are very shallow, and extend out far into the Gulf of Mexico. This creates an ideal environment for a large storm surge to build, and storm surge heights over 10 feet are likely if Ernesto comes ashore as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane along the west coast of Florida. If Ernesto takes a track parallel to the coast and just offshore, a large storm surge could affect a very long portion of the Florida coast, causing immense damage.
