Betting on boating

[sickwilly]

I am betting on boating. I just bought the kids some Brunswick stock (BC). It was under 3 bucks a share.

Here is my thinking:

Gas is down under $2. People seem to be buying and keeping their SUVs again around here. Belt tightening seems to mean slowing down and spending more time at home and with the family. I see boating and camping as a natural extension of this come spring. We are now officially in the recession for 11 months. Most don't last this long. The car and boat buying will start up again before the recession ends, it historically does. Unemployment is going to go up a little more, but its regional and sector specific. Thus, I think the boat buyers market is going to weaken and spring will be good to boating, especially the more reasonable economical boating options.

Thus, I just jumped back in!

OK, now tell me all the reasons why I am crazy.

 

[Dave K.]

Re: Betting on boating

ok willy, well, i like your ideas. however, i don't anticipate gas staying low for too long. this in itself will hinder boat & rv purchase throughout next season. now, boats specifically are luxury items for most folks & generally the first to go during tough economic times. it's not projected the economy will get better anytime soon, & i suspect well into the '09 year before it does.

finally, i do think your stock purchase is a good one! why? because boating & recreational activities will spike once things settle down. people want their leisure time & camping/ boating/ rv touring will go up. i also believe the purchase price of these items will be affordable for many who want to either start or get back into it. your stock really can only go up from here on out. hopefully we're coming to the end of the recession. I HOPE!!!

 

[tashasdaddy]

Re: Betting on boating

seeing it is for the kids, and probably long term holding. it is reasonable.

 

[sickwilly]

Re: Betting on boating

Yeah, my son is learning multiplication by 10s, 100s, etc. I thought get him some shares in multiples of 10s so that he can look it up in the paper and practice this.

The custodial savings account is not making him any money anyway. Also, what better time to start them!

Brunswick is dirt cheap right now. It either goes bust or up.

I figure if we keep adding a little here and there during this recession maybe he can have enough built up for his share of a car one day.

 

[salty87]

Re: Betting on boating

lately, equity holders have been getting the shaft in any re-structurings. the company could stick around and your shares go belly up. i hope boat builders aren't eligible for a bailout too.

you don't have much to lose, that's always nice. stocks under $10 have a hard life though. most mutual funds can't invest in them so there goes a huge source of demand for the stock. shares under $5 aren't marginable so there goes more demand as people who had bought on margin have to sell to meet margin calls. they won't buy back in until it gets over $5. and, stocks have to meet certain minimum prices...i think it's $2 on NYSE to stay listed. otherwise, they get dumped to the OTC market.

i think we're in for a very pro-longed slowdown. most of the previous sources of lending would lend money out at 30:1 or so. $10k on deposit and they'd lend $300k out of it. those sources are dried up now as most of those institutions have transformed to bank holding companies in order to be eligible for bailouts. they are now limited to 10:1 lending.

even when things stabilize, i hope the days of being offered a new line of credit at every cash register are over.

i hope i'm wrong. good luck with your shares.

all that said, i'd stick with companies that aren't going anywhere no matter how bad things get....Coke a Cola (KO), McD's (MCD), Johnson n Johnson (JNJ), health care isn't going anywhere...

 

[JB]

Re: Betting on boating

Nothing to do with boating, but I just bought 1K shares of Ford. Probably won't do me any good, but It could well send a greatgrandbuddy to college.

 

[The Great Escape II]

Re: Betting on boating

Nothing to do with boating, but I just bought 1K shares of Ford. Probably won't do me any good, but It could well send a greatgrandbuddy to college.

That was the better move. Ford at least has enough money to get them through the end of 2009.

 

[sickwilly]

Re: Betting on boating

I bought them some coke too, but got COKE on the Nasdac, versus KO (Coca cola bottling). They also got Ford, GM, and GE.

Its like fishing for catfish! I am bottom feeding!

I can't pick up volvo where I buy their stocks (volfa), but its cheap right now too.

If unemployment stops increasing ans gas stays low, I think we will see lots more boats out there. If not, the kids dad will have to hang up his day trading career and stick to boating, because if the recession persists and gas goes back to $4 bucks, I will still be on the lake.

 

[oops!]

Re: Betting on boating

long is fine if they survive....imho its gonna take a long time for the consumer to come around to buy new......the financing is what they will be afraid of.......its gonna take a few years to give them confidence again....i think they will use cash and buy used for a while yet

 

[rogerwa]

Re: Betting on boating

I think there are some pretty good bargains out there in the financial services areas. The share price at the company I work at was over $60 earlier this year and is now under $20. The drop was not related to the factors that others in the industry experienced (sub-prime mortagages, risky asset mgmt strategies), but was more related to hedge fund selloffs and simply guilt by association. When things turn back around, the stock price will evenutally return to its previsously stable value and may exceed due to our ability to make strategic moves while everyone else is down.

There are others like this out there.

If you do your research you can get some really good deals.