maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

[Ripfence]

OK, I have no life... As such I have been reviewing boating incident and fatality statistics in TN over the last 40 years and came across an amazing revelation. We are getting safer.

Here in TN at least In the fatalities in the 70s were as high as 30-something per 100,000 registered boats in the 2000s they ranged from 3 to 7! Maybe people are starting to listen?

 

[Boss Hawg]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

You are correct

 

[45Auto]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

Darwinism at work .

Confucious say: "There are old boaters and there are bold boaters, but there are NO old, bold boaters."

The boaters in their teens and 20's who survived the 70's are now in their 50's and 60's, driving bigger more expensive boats and moving a little slower and more cautiously ......

 

[erikgreen]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

I hate to throw a monkey wrench into what seems a good news post, but the problem with looking at things like this in isolation is that you can infer all sorts of things that might not be valid.

With this, all you can truthfully say is "there are less reported accidents per capita".

You don't know, for instance, if it's because less of the accidents are reported because there are stiffer legal consequences now, or if it's because less of the people who tended to have accidents before own boats now (which itself could be due to economic trends or something else like fewer people living in rural areas).

The population is also much higher now, so it could even be something like there being a limited number of places to use boats holding the number of actual boat owners steady while the population grows.

It could also as you say be because we're safer or being more responsible... but there's no good way to tell without a lot more information.

I agree that it looks good, but as a wise man once said, there are three kinds of lies.... lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Erik

 

[Ripfence]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

I hate to throw a monkey wrench into what seems a good news post, but the problem with looking at things like this in isolation is that you can infer all sorts of things that might not be valid.

With this, all you can truthfully say is "there are less reported accidents per capita".

You don't know, for instance, if it's because less of the accidents are reported because there are stiffer legal consequences now, or if it's because less of the people who tended to have accidents before own boats now (which itself could be due to economic trends or something else like fewer people living in rural areas).

The population is also much higher now, so it could even be something like there being a limited number of places to use boats holding the number of actual boat owners steady while the population grows.

It could also as you say be because we're safer or being more responsible... but there's no good way to tell without a lot more information.

I agree that it looks good, but as a wise man once said, there are three kinds of lies.... lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Erik

Yes statistics can be confusing but I think there is still some good news here.

I was manly looking at fatalities which are almost always reported.

Furthermore, the absolute numbers are better too.

According to the TWRA there were 40 fatalities in 1970 and that is with a total of 120,000 or so regestered boats. 35 years later in 2005 there were only 10 fatalities with nearly twice as many registered boats.

I am not statistician (nor am I much of a speller) but it seems that we are on the right track.

 

[dbkerley]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

There was also a vast amount of alcohol pumped out of the lakes. I remember hitting beer cans when skiing and tossing them out of the back of the boat at/to other skiers. The boating environment has become much safer despite our wicked ways.

 

[levittownnick]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

Ripfence has my vote. I don't think there is a need to overthink this one.

 

[ThePerchik]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

Something else to consider is how emergency trauma medicine has advanced.

 

[Glast-Ron]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

Statistics may say one thing, but drivers now are 100X worse.


Looks like luck more than good management.

 

[Ripfence]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

Statistics may say one thing, but drivers now are 100X worse.


Looks like luck more than good management.

If it's luck then I am thankful for it regardless.

 

[lowkee]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

I think that stat has much more to do with better emergency response and medical technology than any kind of smarter or more cautious boater.

Risk overthinking this one a little bit.. humor me:

- Better designed, safer boats that float instead of sink (even when full of water)
- New drugs/procedures up the wazoo for whatever trama you cause yourself
- More convenient safety items thanks to more advanced plastics (who ever wore a life vest in the 70s? I sat on mine)
- Medivacs
- Shock paddles are now portable
- High schools dropout rates exceed 50% in schools across the country
- The average person spends over 4 hours per day staring at a television screen

The conclusion I draw is:

The idiots of the 70s are all dead, so there are less idiots to die every successive year.

 

[Home Cookin']

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

from my observation of over 40 years, living on a well-boated river, the drivers are worse, both the young and reckless, and the old and ignorant (first boat). Boatrs are bigger and powered higher. Nautical rules are ignored and unknown.
But more people wear PFD's and that is the most important survival tool. Now they are inexpensive, comfortable and styled; remember the orange canvas kapock Mae West? And they cost about $30 each -- in 1970!

 

[Billdc]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

There was also a vast amount of alcohol pumped out of the lakes. I remember hitting beer cans when skiing and tossing them out of the back of the boat at/to other skiers. The boating environment has become much safer despite our wicked ways.

Ahh, the good ole days. I thought my friends and I were the only ones doing that. looking back we wasted alot of beer that way.

 

[Bob_VT]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

I think that stat has much more to do with better emergency response and medical technology than any kind of smarter or more cautious boater.

Risk overthinking this one a little bit.. humor me:

- Better designed, safer boats that float instead of sink (even when full of water) more rules and regulations
- New drugs/procedures up the wazoo for whatever trama you cause yourself
- More convenient safety items thanks to more advanced plastics (who ever wore a life vest in the 70s? I sat on mine) Same with seatbelts and child seats
- Medivacs
- Shock paddles are now portable only used for a heart problem
- High schools dropout rates exceed 50% in schools across the country ???
- The average person spends over 4 hours per day staring at a television screen or surfing the net

The conclusion I draw is:

The idiots of the 70s are all dead, so there are less idiots to die every successive year.

I agree on most but not the dropout rate. Yup most of the idiots are already dead. I admit to doing MANY dumb things while I was younger but no more.

 

[lowkee]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

I agree on most but not the dropout rate.

You can disagree, it doesn't make it untrue:

http://www.nber.org/reporter/2008number1/heckman.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,344190,00.html
http://www.theind.com/content/view/4520/96/

(I think that is the 1st time I've ever referenced fox news on anything, I feel a little ill)

You added rules and regulations, but who on the dropout list do you think will be picking up a regulation book when they didn't even pick up a school book? There are roughly 3000 traffic laws in North Carolina at this moment. Do you think adding to them would save more lives? How many do you think know all 3000 as it is? (I certainly don't)

I don't understand your seat belts theory. If anything, more idiots would get weeded out before getting on the water if they didn't wear seat belts (assuming they drive as ..(ahem).. well as they boat).

I hardly consider surfing the net akin to watching a television flicker. After all, surfing the net would have afforded you the knowledge to know the our schools (at least people attending them) are much worse than you thought. The other day I read a bunch about the National Electrical Code while surfing the net. I researched (wood) routers the day after, then learned to bend wood for woodworking. All things which directly benefit me in my life. Are you saying the someone watching a television has the same learning potential? Sure, surfing has its back alleys of idiotic content (alien abduction stories, most of youtube, myspace, etc), but all in all, it is directly comparable to sitting down and reading a book. There are very few books I would consider on the same level as watching a television. And remember, this boat forum, and everything we have all learned is also surfing the net. Try getting that knowledge from a television.

Of course, some extra surfing time would have avoided me putting portable shock paddles on that list, too duh!

 

[Bob_VT]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

Seat belts are safety items and so are life vests..... more people wear both today.....use of safety items is what I meant.... just like bicycle helmets and kids today.... safety item.

you have a pm

 

[Ripfence]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

I think that stat has much more to do with better emergency response and medical technology than any kind of smarter or more cautious boater.

Risk overthinking this one a little bit.. humor me:

- Better designed, safer boats that float instead of sink (even when full of water)
- New drugs/procedures up the wazoo for whatever trama you cause yourself
- More convenient safety items thanks to more advanced plastics (who ever wore a life vest in the 70s? I sat on mine)
- Medivacs
- Shock paddles are now portable
- High schools dropout rates exceed 50% in schools across the country
- The average person spends over 4 hours per day staring at a television screen

The conclusion I draw is:

The idiots of the 70s are all dead, so there are less idiots to die every successive year.

Good points about the better lifesaving techniques and technology.

 

[scipper77]

Re: maybe we aren't as stupid as we think

You can disagree, it doesn't make it untrue:

http://www.nber.org/reporter/2008number1/heckman.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,344190,00.html
http://www.theind.com/content/view/4520/96/

(I think that is the 1st time I've ever referenced fox news on anything, I feel a little ill)

You added rules and regulations, but who on the dropout list do you think will be picking up a regulation book when they didn't even pick up a school book? There are roughly 3000 traffic laws in North Carolina at this moment. Do you think adding to them would save more lives? How many do you think know all 3000 as it is? (I certainly don't)

I don't understand your seat belts theory. If anything, more idiots would get weeded out before getting on the water if they didn't wear seat belts (assuming they drive as ..(ahem).. well as they boat).

I hardly consider surfing the net akin to watching a television flicker. After all, surfing the net would have afforded you the knowledge to know the our schools (at least people attending them) are much worse than you thought. The other day I read a bunch about the National Electrical Code while surfing the net. I researched (wood) routers the day after, then learned to bend wood for woodworking. All things which directly benefit me in my life. Are you saying the someone watching a television has the same learning potential? Sure, surfing has its back alleys of idiotic content (alien abduction stories, most of youtube, myspace, etc), but all in all, it is directly comparable to sitting down and reading a book. There are very few books I would consider on the same level as watching a television. And remember, this boat forum, and everything we have all learned is also surfing the net. Try getting that knowledge from a television.

Of course, some extra surfing time would have avoided me putting portable shock paddles on that list, too duh!

the internet can be just as bad as tv if not worse. It depends on how it's used!! How many people come on these forums just to ask a question that anyone could look up in 5 minutes?
In college we had a research project that required us to use the library for sources of information. The internet was off limits. You wouldn't believe how hard this as for some people.

My point is that the world is all about instant gratification today. Many (maybe most) people will give up on something if they can't Google the answer!!

I apologize in advance for being so declarative in this post. I'm really not trying to start a debate, just voice my opinion. I'm sure that this is an opinion shared by many.

(I also apologize for going off topic )