A Couple of Economic articles

OldMercsRule

OldMercsRule

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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

Sorry bein' a single brain cell bone head I could not make this last article linc work. See Mr Tree's post on #6! It is on Drudge if ya care to look at the article.

BTW, Just as China tersely threatened to trade Los Angeles fer Taipei in the mid 1990s after the largest donor to the Clinton Gore campaign, (Loral's Bernard Schwartz) was allowed to fix the Chinese missiles by the Clinton administration. This is likely an empty, (although very scary) threat. The $900 Billion in US bonds/notes and lots of cash they hold would not be worth too much if they actually did pull the same thing George Soros pulled on the Pound Sterling to make a load of cash. The Chinese economy would not do well either after the destruction of their reserves.

Personal note: I had dinner with a few of me Fraternity Bros last night, n' one of the people there is way up in management in one of the biggest wire houses on Wall Street. He said that China n' Russia n' Venezuela n' a few others are establishing "permanent funds" based upon the Alaska Oil fund model in AK my Brother, his wife n' kids get sizable checks from each year.

NOW THAT IS REAL SCARY. THINK OF PUTIN actually havin' a real large chunk of funds to pick winners n' loosers in the world's capital markets, or China or Venezuela. NOT A GOOD THING. IF anyone sees something in print I would luv to learn more about a real big problem in a very few years headin' our way. YA HEARD IT HERE FIRST: my friends. JR
 
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PW2

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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

Where you been, Murky? The fact that Chinese money is flooding into this country purchasing bonds is hardly a new story.

And the notion that an oil exporting country has surplus cash is hardly a shocking development. That they may share it with their citizens is a refreshing change to the norm, if true.

Where do you think the Alaskan permanent fund comes from?
 
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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

BTW, that is the first time I've ever heard the argument that government building regulations caused the boom in housing by restricting supply.

During the boom, we had 2.1 MM starts. How many starts do you think are even possible?

In any event, it's a local government issue in any case.
 
i386

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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

Heh, Murky's running a trot line tonight. Looks like he'll be eatin' good. :D
 
OldMercsRule

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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

PW2 said:
Where you been, Murky? The fact that Chinese money is flooding into this country purchasing bonds is hardly a new story.

And the notion that an oil exporting country has surplus cash is hardly a shocking development. That they may share it with their citizens is a refreshing change to the norm, if true.

Where do you think the Alaskan permanent fund comes from?
Click to expand...

Duh PW2 I don't know where the AK fund comes from: please share. PW2: Do ya really think I was not aware that ever since the Chinese aquired Hong Kong in 1997 that they have held one of the largest, (now the largest) pile of US paper on the planet? Give me a break PW2 the single brain cell is a serious limit: but please.

I guess you knew all about these FAIRLY NEW soveren foreign PERMANENT funds that have just been set up as I just heard last night then. I guess I'm really stupid PW2!!!! Please forgive my total ignorance about all the things you knew when I was still in diapers n' share yer vast knowledge with the rest of us. Boy yer real smart PW2, hope I can be like you when I grow up. JR ps: I guess you don't like me to share what I hear from what I cornsider a reliable source then with my iboats pals?
 
OldMercsRule

OldMercsRule

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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

PW2 said:
BTW, that is the first time I've ever heard the argument that government building regulations caused the boom in housing by restricting supply.

During the boom, we had 2.1 MM starts. How many starts do you think are even possible?

In any event, it's a local government issue in any case.
Click to expand...

PW2, no doubt things were strong at the top of the parabula, (as is always the case in past historical moves). I do know building restrictions escalate values here in this Liberal town, n' yer right it is a local government issue. Does not make Dr Sowell's point invalid, does it? JR
 
treedancer

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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

Quote i386


Heh, Murky's running a trot line tonight. Looks like he'll be eatin' good.


Yea Murkys working like a beaver to get all of his lines in the water before Spinner, or JB, comes and spanks him.:D
 
OldMercsRule

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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

treedancer said:
Quote i386


Heh, Murky's running a trot line tonight. Looks like he'll be eatin' good.


Yea Murkys working like a beaver to get all of his lines in the water before Spinner, or JB, comes and spanks him.:D
Click to expand...

LOL Mr Tree n' i386!! JR
 
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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

OldMercsRule said:
Duh PW2 I don't know where the AK fund comes from: please share. PW2: Do ya really think I was not aware that ever since the Chinese aquired Hong Kong in 1997 that they have held one of the largest, (now the largest) pile of US paper on the planet? Give me a break PW2 the single brain cell is a serious limit: but please.

I guess you knew all about these FAIRLY NEW soveren foreign PERMANENT funds that have just been set up as I just heard last night then. I guess I'm really stupid PW2!!!! Please forgive my total ignorance about all the things you knew when I was still in diapers n' share yer vast knowledge with the rest of us. Boy yer real smart PW2, hope I can be like you when I grow up. JR ps: I guess you don't like me to share what I hear from what I cornsider a reliable source then with my iboats pals?
Click to expand...

I try to help whenever I can. It's kind of a liberal thing to do!
 
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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

OldMercsRule said:
PW2, no doubt things were strong at the top of the parabula, (as is always the case in past historical moves). I do know building restrictions escalate values here in this Liberal town, n' yer right it is a local government issue. Does not make Dr Sowell's point invalid, does it? JR
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His point is ludicrous. How many new mills would have to be built to produce the building material for any significantly more starts, that would have to be shuttered during the inevitable lean times to follow?

Where would the skilled labor force come from to build those new houses, and what would they do during bust times?

The problem with some economic theorists is they don't take reality into their equation. They somehow think the economy, and economic factors can be controlled like a Ferrari.
 
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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

PW2 said:
His point is ludicrous.

I don't agree that it is "ludicrous". That said, he does place too much emphasis on his point about local mind yer business Pols calling it a or the "principal factor", I would characterize it as a "significant factor".

How many new mills would have to be built to produce the building material for any significantly more starts, that would have to be shuttered during the inevitable lean times to follow?

I doubt it could have been a much hotter building market then is was regardless of Dr. Sowell's VALID points about local corntrols n' regulations. I did not see this point addressed in the read, (although I understand the perspective you have in yer line of work).

Where would the skilled labor force come from to build those new houses, and what would they do during bust times?

See above response. This is a different perspective then Dr Sowell talks about.

The problem with some economic theorists is they don't take reality into their equation. They somehow think the economy, and economic factors can be controlled like a Ferrari.
Click to expand...

Wow, PW2, I have no idea where ya get that.

Now my $.02.

This "mother of all" refi/housing booms has been due to a huge amount of factors that have come together. I'm ranking the facters as I judge their significance.

#1 Demographics, n' immigration into this Country. The Boomers, (like you n' I PW2), have been the biggest drivers of this multi decade housing boom. Ever since FDR created the subsidized 30 year mortgage in the 1930s housing has generally appreciated due to the relative ease of financing. When Boomers began to have huge impacts in the 1970s to now the pressure has been incredible with the easy financing n' tax advantages.

#2 The perception of the masses is that houses always rise in value, n' with a few notable exceptions after the oil bubble in 1985 n' the stock market crash in 1987, n' the Japanese market problems in 1989 leading to severe problems in Hawaii, prices have generally moved upward. Market particapants, (regardless of the markets), tend to get more excited about future appreciation potential near the tops of markets and generally get in with both feet, as seems to have happened here.

#3 The Chinese. Do not underestimate the huge impact of China keeping an artificially low exchange rate on their currency exagerating their allready large advantages that they enjoy in abundant low cost labor. The net effect is the huge currency surpluss that they have been willing to roll into T-Bills, Notes n' Bonds. In effect the Chinese have given us very low cost high quality items and taken the excess funds and purchased US paper making our domestic inflation very low, (low cost high quality items), interest rates low, (they have bought n' held the bonds; thus far). Hence LOW MORTGAGE RATES. China has a great deal to do with the relatively low interest rate mortgage money.

The above three factors are by far the big ones, (at least to an interested observer with only one functional brain cell).

#4 A less important, but still an important factor in many Left Coast cities, (that I personaly know about), and likely most major metro areas in the US that are usually dominated by Liberal CORNTROL EVERY ASPECT OF YER LIFE Politicians n' bureauocrats in the building n' land use departments in this Country that all of us Americans who have ever built something requiring a permit knows about. It is hard to build or develope without the "by yer leave" of yer local building officials. That adds SIGNIFICANTLY to the cost of all aspects of any project, and thereby increases the value of any existing functional structure. Dr. Sowell's article is VERY CORRECT about that aspect, allthough I feel it is second to the three MORE significant factors I have listed above.

Respectfully JR
 
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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

PW2 said:
I try to help whenever I can. It's kind of a liberal thing to do!
Click to expand...

OK PW2, since yer allready up to speed on the new soveriegn permanent funds that I just learned about and I personnally think are a very VERY big deal that will began to effect many MANY things in a very few years from now, can ya share some of that vast knowledge with a former high school attendee of yers who is severly limited by his single brain cell? (Maybe I was in Jane Addams when you were there.) Please cite some articles ol' Murky can read so I can bone up and maybe gain a fraction of the vast financial knowledge you allready have. JR
 
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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

treedancer said:
If I can derail for a bit off of the Political/rhetoric, for a bit, to interject this link, which I think will show that China has a long term plan which doesn?t involve bankrupting both our country and there?s. But what do I know.

http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/667-China-s-urban-fever
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Mr Tree, That was an interesting article, but not what I'm looking for. I also think China will not make good on their economic threats to us, as I stated earlier. These soverign permanent funds or what ever they call them are a very different kettle of fish though. They scare the h*** out of me. (but I have only one brain cell as ya know). Thanks fer the help. JR
 
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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

Why would their sovereign permanent funds scare you? I'm just curious.

I have no idea if they exist or not, nor why I should be concerned if they exist. I would not be surprised if they do, however, given the oil revenue in recent times..

And what could we do about it in any event, since they are the business of a sovereign country, nor exactly why we would want to do anything about it if we could.
 
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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

Dr Sowell's points are ludicrous. It comes from trying to make some tortured political point where there was none to be made.

And yes, building products prices were very high during the boom (and they are much lower now) That is the point. Just from the point of material availability, there was simply no room for added construction, no matter if there was no local regulation of any sort on building.

There are lots of other reasons why his point is not valid--that one is as good as any to refute his thesis.
 
OldMercsRule

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Re: A Couple of Economic articles

PW2 said:
Why would their sovereign permanent funds scare you? I'm just curious.

I have no idea if they exist or not, nor why I should be concerned if they exist. I would not be surprised if they do, however, given the oil revenue in recent times..

And what could we do about it in any event, since they are the business of a sovereign country, nor exactly why we would want to do anything about it if we could.
Click to expand...

OH, I see, ya really don't know anything about 'em then! I thought you were spankin' me fer "where I've been" all my life or some such. ("Where ya been Murky?") They are real new. Once I get some hard info I'll spoon feed me initial cornclusions to the folks here. If you can't see the potential challange n' huge risks of huge concentrations of, (unregulated potentially secret) massive piles of capital in the hands of some of our advisaries, I just can't help ya: PW2. Go back to sleep. N' enjoy the nap, hope there isn't any trouble when ya read about this in the MSM in a few years. JR
 
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