global warming and abrupt climatic change...

[blacktie]

Much has been made about the current global warming trend. As pw2 pointed out on another thread (paraphrased), there is no scientific doubt that warming is happening...but there is much debate and research into what role man plays into the equation. To hear it from the "green" side, mankind is wholly responsible for the problem. Many other scientists point to cycles that have occurred for the last hundred thousand years, and assert that this will happen with or without mankind. I have seen estimates that man's impact can be as high as 40% and as low as 1% of the problem. Couple this with the thermohaline cycles in the ocean (particularly the gulf stream), and we could be headed for some abrupt climatic change. So now the fun questions...<br /><br />What have you heard/do you believe about this?<br /><br />Are we causing this, or is it just part of nature?<br /><br />Do you think that we could/should try to prevent this, or is that futile?<br /><br /><br />here are my thoughts...<br /><br />we may have a minimal impact on this, but the cycles of cold and hot on earth have been occurring long before the industrial age. we are overdue for a cycle change (they happen about every 10,000 years, and we are 200 years over that limit right now).<br /><br />I think that environmental causes to try to prevent this are futile. our energy and efforts would be better spent on planning on how to deal with abrupt climatic change WHEN it happens, as well as preparing our economies, sociologies, and habits for a post-change environment. we are missing the boat. we have never been successful in trying to control the environment...yet our egos always make us think that we can control forces that have been in place and acted on the earth for millions of years.<br />any thoughts?

 

[mellowyellow]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

agree with "we may have a minimal impact" BT.<br />after a cold/rainy summer where we have yet to<br />reach 90', it's hard for me to give credence to<br />"global warming"

 

[JB]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

Cool, wet summer here, too.<br /><br />I believe that mother nature is doing her own thing.<br /><br />At one time it was widely believed that earthquakes, tsunami, eclipses, even rain, etcetera were caused by human behavior. <br /><br />Nevertheless, I see great improvement in the quality of our environment in this country in my lifetime due, mainly, to environmental protection and cleanup action by humans.<br /><br />I am no tree hugger, mind you, but they go a long way in keeping us from damaging our environment further.

 

[PW2]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

Climate change is a natural part of this process, as your "cold rainy summer" could well be a result of global warming, not an argument against it. Then again, it may be just part of the averaging process, in that to get an average temp in the summer, for example, you will have days below average and above average.<br /><br />I think it is far more futile to try to deal with the effects of a dramatic climate change than to actually attempt to reduce it. You cannot move NYC back a few miles because the ice caps melted and sea level is now 20 ft higher than it was. You can't change the migratory patterns of various disease carrying insects, for example. You can't move hurricane targets because hurricanes are more prevalent in warmer ocean temps.<br /><br />Clearly we can reduce the amount of greenhouse gasses we produce, and we can modify our environment to better handle the gasses that are there. While there may be no definitive scientific "proof" that this will solve the problem, atmospheric science does not lead to simplistic models and absolute proof of virtually anything. Intuitively, we ought to know that reducing these emission can only help--they are not, in the current volumes we produce them, naturally occurring, and other than simply giving up, it is the only rational way we can proceed. As the first rule of the hypocratic oaths states, lest first make sure we do no further harm.<br /><br />There should be a distinction between "pollution" and greenhouse gas emissions.<br /><br />The biggest greenhouse gas is CO2 and is produced by anything that burns. It is a fundamental part of the combustion process, and the combustion process is what fundamentally drives our modern world--whether it is in the form of automobiles, or natural gas or coal-fired powerplants.<br /><br />Pollutants, OTOH, are frequently caused by incomplete burning, or in natural contaminants that are released during the burning process, and while they too can be greenhouse gasses, their impact is generally more immediate in the environment. SO2 from coal fired plants, that cause acid rain (combine in the atmosphere with water to fall as H2SO4), is just one of many examples. <br /><br />That is an important process, and may well be related to global warming, but still they are fundamentally different issues.<br /><br />While there is no way to immediately stop producing CO2 in the volumes we do, there are ways to mitigate its effects, but it requires a coordinated global effort. CO2 is transformed into necesssary O2 naturally by plant life and the photosynthesis process, but it requires healthy forests and such worldwide, as well as hopefully an incremental reduction in the need and use of fossil fuels worldwide somehow.<br /><br />That is why something like Kyoto is important. While I am not familiar with all aspects of that pact, and I am sure there are flawed areas of it, all in all it was a start, and it at least attempted to open dialog on the problem.<br /><br />The alternative is to do nothing, and live with the consequences. While we will have to adapt with the changes, I don't think people realize the changes we are likely to have to live with. If they were, there might well be a different attitude.

 

[SS MAYFLOAT]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

I personnaly believe that it is all hog wash. Whatever mother earth is going to do, we as man cannot stop it. For the age of the earth there has been floods, ice, intense heat and so on.<br /><br />The earth changes it seasons by the tilt on its axis. If the tilt is enough to go from hot summers to figid cold temps, then what about the difference it makes on its orbit around the sun. One year during winter say the earth is farther away from the sun in its orbit. This would make for a bad cold winter. But then if it is closer to the sun in its orbit, the winter will be mild.<br /><br />I can't believe that the earth orbits the sun in its exact path each time. Try drawing a perfect circle freehand and then try to go over the exact lines again. Its not going to be the same each time. To me that is the way the earth revolves around the sun. It doesn't take the exact same path year after year. Some paths can be eliptical, some swing out, and some go closer to the sun. This is a theroy of a greek astrologist. I just don't remember his name. It starts with a "T".<br /><br />Then another thought is about for every action there is a reaction. Does the space shuttle push our earth each time it blasts off? Only NASA can answer that, and I doubt if they will for fear of starting an uproar.<br /><br />Thats the way I feel and I'm going to continue my life without the fear of what is going to happen tomorrow. I'll be like others and have to deal with it when it happens. If it happens in my lifetime.

 

[LubeDude]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

I agree wholeheartedly with SSmayfloat, Being the ONLY nation on earth even cocidering doing anything about it, as futile as it is, I beleive its like Pi$$ing on a forest fire.<br /><br />I do not beleive in the hole in the ozone layer or global warming.<br /><br />But Pw2 you wrote a very eloquent artical, I just beleive its all haugwash.

 

[blacktie]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

I'll correct you on one point pw2....(although there are many that I will debate)...the single biggest greenhouse gas?...CO2 runs second to one that we cannot control. That is water vapor....clouds. (Allright...technically, it is not a "gas" but scientists point out that it is the single largest factor in the greenhouse effect.)...by the way, for the crew who do not believe this is happening, here are some facts (actual scientific fact). keep in mind, this is blacktie speaking, and many of you know I am far, far from a tree-hugging liberal...quite the opposite.<br /><br />the pentagon has a well documented report that global warming is the largest threat that we face. period. not terrorism...not economics...global warming. it was released last year I think.<br /><br />according to the pentagon, the arctic ice cap has dimished in size by 40% in the last 30 years<br /><br />in 2002 720 billion tons of ice was released into the ocean near antarctica when the larsen B ice shelf broke off (the "chunk" was the size of New Jersey). scientific evidence supports that this may have been the largest breakup of the antarctic ice shelves in 12,000 years. scientists believed that it would take 6 months or longer to melt and break up...it took only 35 days.<br /><br />two years ago, during summer, the north pole was navigable (not icepacked) for the first time in recorded history<br /><br />studies of ice cores samples from Greenlands glaciers reveal that the change from temperate climate (much like our own) to the last ice age 10,000 years ago took 2-3 years to change...not hundreds of years as was previously thought. basically the season went from normal...to a really tough winter...followed by a shortened spring/summer/fall, followed by a winter that did not end for many thousand years.<br /><br />here is one of a zillion links on the topic (this discusses the theory you brought up about the axis tilt, and elliptical orbit paths..)<br /><br /> http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/abruptclimate_joyce_keigwin.html <br /><br />here is another about the frozen areas of the earth.<br /><br /> http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/ <br /><br />BTW mellowyellow...cooler temps during the summer here can be directly related to global warming. global warming can trigger glaciers to advance into the USA and europe. as the ice sheets in greenland and the arctic melt, they dilute the salinity of the North Atlantic (which is very salty). The difference in salinity (along with heat) between the North Atlantic and the equatorial portions of the ocean are what keep the gulf stream flowing. as the gulf stream flows north, it releases its heat along the east coast of the US, and across most of Europe. if too much melts, it will alter the salinity of the North Atlantic, and can stop the gulf stream (or slow it down). If it does, much of the heat that warms the eastern US and europe will disappear (it is said that 40% of europes winter heat comes from this effect...the rest is from the sun). This is all well documented scientific fact.<br /><br />more later.

 

[PW2]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

Ok. Water vapor in the air is something we know we can do nothing about, and as it is naturally occuring and crucial for our survival, we should not want to do anything about it. Burning fossil fuel is a man made event, and since we cause this buildup of CO2, it stands to reason if we were to do anything, it should be there.<br /><br />When I lived in the northwest, the coldest wettest summer I can ever recall happened the year Mt St Helens erupted, in 1980. While this was obviously a natural event, and the actions of man had nothing to do with it, it put millions of tons of particulate into the upper atmosphere, and caused pretty dramatic climatic changes world wide.

 

[PW2]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

Lube,<br /><br />It is right that we have been the only nation in history even considering dealing with greenhouse gasses, as we as a nation have exponentially increased the production of them far greater than any other nation on earth. Clean up your own messes, as my mother used to say!

 

[snapperbait]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

For the most part I do believe the natural climatic cycle is major contributing factor... I also think mankind probably has'nt "helped" the situation any...<br /><br />Another interesting thing some scientists think we're "due for" is a switch in the earth's magnetic field.. That should be fun....

 

[blacktie]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

I do agree pw2...if there is anything we can do, that would be it. I just don't think it will change cycles that have been in place since the dawn of time.<br /><br />BTW...as you dig deeper, you will find out that these cycles have caused most of the climates on earth to be what they are...like the sahara desert...look at a globe, it sits at the same lat as brazil, yet it is a desert, and brazil is tropical...it happened during a climate shift (the sahara was formed out of once fertile land)...there is a russian group that is studying the potential effects, and they have found that while western europe and the US would be plunged into a quasi-ice age, their climate in their northern regions would become considerably warmer and much more like the north mediterranean today. they are actually trying to figure out how to ACCELERATE the global warming process.

 

[dogsdad]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

Present a thesis (other than the politically correct crap) on geological trends based on less than 100 years worth of data and see what happens.<br /><br /><br />Hogwash is a very appropriate word to describe the global warming hype.<br /><br /><br />-dd-

 

[rolmops]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

We are returning millions and millions of tons carbon into the atmosphere.This carbon was taken out of the atmosphere and turned into coal over millions of years and stored as hydro carbons or as we know it now,fossil fuel.<br />We know through geological research that during the jurassic period huge cold blooded animals thrived mostly because the entire earth had a much warmer climate than we have today.<br />The more hydro carbons we release back into the atmosphere the warmer it will get,like the way it was, before they were taken out of the atmosphere.<br />All those that deny these very simple facts of life are either ignorant,close their eyes against reality,or have an ulterior motive to deny these facts.<br />Face it.In the natural balance of things,there is room for less than a billion people on this earth,add to that that todays humans use about 10 times the energy they would have used say 200 years ago.Right now there are six billion energy hungry humans who all want to drive their car.It is sheer lunacy to think that everything is fine and balanced.

 

[blacktie]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

dd...<br /><br />I do think the hype is hogwash (as you put it). this issue is being politicized, and that is what I think is wrong.<br /><br />global cycles of heat and warmth (over thousands of years, confirmed through geological evidence) are a reality. they are quite regular, and we have been at the end of a warm cycle for hundreds of years now. actually, we are overdue for a cold one. it will happen...whether we drive cars, or not. it has happened many times before the industrial age...the earth will do what she wants to do, so I think this self-blaming "green" approach to the problem is way off base. those of you who are skeptical...can you deny that the earth was not always as we know it today?...in our nano-second lifetimes on a geological scale?...or are we just playing the "it won't happen in my lifetime" card.<br /><br />rolmops...excellent conservation of energy post. (the physics kind...not the nader kind)...energy is neither created nor destroyed. it just changes form. true.

 

[NathanY]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

Would be kind of arrogant of us to think that we could actually destroy what GOD created. The only way that the world will ever end is by the will of GOD, no other way. I do not believe in global warming, for every glacier that you show me as diminishing, I will show you 5 that are increasing at a rapid rate. All you tree huggin sandal wearin hippies look at this just as you look at everything ssa sdrawkcab.

 

[Link]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

blacktie I was wondering if you were going to take up the challenge of a civil debate on the subject. Glad you did.<br /><br />I think Mother Earth is going to do what she wants and there isn't a thing we can do about it.<br /><br />I also think when you cut a tree you plant 3 more. Because Deer, Elk and others love them tender plants and only 1 in 3 survive <br /><br />Same with everything else but we should use our resources<br /><br />I think there are too many special instrest groups<br />calling the shots<br /><br />Other than adding that I agree with what you wrote blacktie<br /><br />Just my thoughts on the subject

 

[1730V]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

An upcoming event that has been proven to change global climates is the shifting of earths magnetic field. Scientists are convinced that the earths magnetic field shifts,poles every 500 to 1000 years. We are overdue. There is not a thing in the world we can do about.<br /><br />The effects are expected to be major regional changes in climate along with weather flow patterns.<br /><br />I guess I'll hold off buying that new compass.

 

[12Footer]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

The facts depend on the findings of the scientist most-recently purchased.

 

[SoulWinner]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

PW2 said:<br />"I think it is far more futile to try to deal with the effects of a dramatic climate change than to actually attempt to reduce it. "<br /><br />Huh? Humans can't make it rain, if it's raining too much, we can't make it stop, we can't stop a tornado or alter it's course. We can't even accurately predict the path of a hurricane. But we are supposed to control naturally occurring climatic changed like the one that turned a rain forest into what we now call the Sahara Dessert? Riiiiiiight.....<br /><br />PW2 also said:<br />"The biggest greenhouse gas is CO2 and is produced by anything that burns. It is a fundamental part of the combustion process, and the combustion process is what fundamentally drives our modern world--whether it is in the form of automobiles, or natural gas or coal-fired powerplants.<br />(edit)<br />While there is no way to immediately stop producing CO2 in the volumes we do, there are ways to mitigate its effects, but it requires a coordinated global effort. CO2 is transformed into necesssary O2 naturally by plant life and the photosynthesis process, but it requires healthy forests and such worldwide, as well as hopefully an incremental reduction in the need and use of fossil fuels worldwide somehow."<br /><br />The only way to do that with the technology we have is to convert every combustion process we employ to nuclear power. I don't think that would be such a good idea.<br /><br />And PW2 said:<br />"That is why something like Kyoto is important. While I am not familiar with all aspects of that pact, and I am sure there are flawed areas of it, all in all it was a start, and it at least attempted to open dialog on the problem.<br /><br />The alternative is to do nothing, and live with the consequences."<br /><br />Since when does the United States "NEED" to follow any other country? We lead the world in technology. Only in America are there Pediatric Cardiac Physicians that can operate on human heart the size of a pecan. America has led the world in technology, industrialization, economics, finance, medicine, etc, for 200 years. We do NOT need Kyoto. We are on top of our past environmental blunders and we fixing them. The rest of the industrialized world needs America to come to Kyoto to show them how to fix their problems and clean up their messes, and to pay for it all. Based on your statement you think that unless we get on board with Kyoto, then we (America) is doing nothing? <br /><br />You said "we as a nation have exponentially increased the production of them far greater than any other nation on earth." What a load. I don't have solid numbers in front of me, but based on what I know about the industrial activities of Russia, China, Japan, The UK, Indonesia, there is just no way your statement holds water. What your statement does do, on the other hand, is demonstrate your hate for America, your view of America as "the bad guy", and your feeling that America owes the world. You think that unless America is led around like a pony, signing treaties and accords and Kyoto etc, we are doing nothing but destroying the Earth. Well let me say this. That attitude is terribly sad. America has been the worlds greatest contributor of peace, freedom, technological advances, medical discoveries, et al. America can solve the worlds energy/pollution problems, but not by following the rest of world, or signing the Kyoto agreement. We will do it by doing what we have always done, what we do best; we will lead the world with a shining example of excellence and ingenuity.

 

[rolmops]

Re: global warming and abrupt climatic change...

Soulwinner, your unshakeable belief in the superiority of America is based on belief and not on fact!!Both Albert Einstein and Werner von Braun were Germans and not Americans.These are the guys who developed the relativity theory and took us to the moon.These are but a few of a long list.<br />Intelligence and wisdom are not promoted by feelings of superiority,but by listening to what others have to say and measuring it against reality and not against pride or short term financial interest!