The future of boating

[emilsr]

Re: The future of boating

Good points as well wbc. Only time will tell of course but it's an interesting debate for these cold days when I can't be on the water. (I think the "winterized" tag on the boat is mocking me!)

Glad to be here on iboats!

 

[produceguy]

Re: The future of boating

Look at sbl, If he doesn't inspire you nothing will.

All is good and all will be good.

 

[shrew]

Re: The future of boating

Two years ago I built a small manufacturing plant in California. The CEO was hellbent on using a chinese company. Against my advise and against my better judgement we went that way. Got a turnkey process, including labor. I'm ashamed to say that I paid the chinese workers $6 per day. (read that again....I said per day not per hour). Those guys were really nice people. Many of them owned cars and some even houses of their own. When they saw boats running in San Francisco Bay owned by private citizens, they said that was their goal.

This is why a rebound will be difficult.

BTW- The manufacturing plant was built in California? I'm not sure I follow the 6$ part, but I may have overlooked something.

 

[halas]

Re: The future of boating

I think the trend going to be: slowing down speedwise, in other worlds the trawlers and the displacement hulls dominate selling. Diesel inboards will be the of 20-25' range boating future. The gas prices will rise and stay high wiping out traditional boating concept for the average folk.

 

[JimS123]

Re: The future of boating

This is why a rebound will be difficult.

BTW- The manufacturing plant was built in California? I'm not sure I follow the 6$ part, but I may have overlooked something.

We bought a turn-key plant based on my design and blueprints. I specified American equipment and budgeted for an American local contractor to install it, figuring an average union wage of $35 per hour for electricians, millwrights and mechanical installers. The chinamen won the bid because they only charged $6 a day per person for everyone, plus expenses. They built it in China and sent thir workers over to install it. They put 4 men to a cheep hotel room and ate chicken and rice at the local chinese restaurant, so the CEO was quite happy to hire them.

The rest of the story is that much of the china equipment didn't work right or didn't meet USA standards so it had to be replaced. What was to be a $1.5 million cost savings turned out to be a $4 million overrun. (it was just a small plant)

And I'm the one that gets critisized for saying we should buy American. Go buy your tohatsu and when the chickens come home to roost you'll be sorry. Nothing we can do uless we ALL do something. Our kids and grandkids will be the ones to suffer, even if we make it thru for the time being.

I hope I'm totally out in left field on this one, but based on my business and what i see out there, tougher times are a comin.

 

[wbc1957]

Re: The future of boating

I hope I'm totally out in left field on this one, but based on my business and what i see out there, tougher times are a comin.

Thanks Jim. I have seen many responses on fuel prices and how that will effect the boater in using what he/she already has, and may in his/her purchase of a smaller more fuel sipping model. But, the issue remains of what the suppliers will be like, both with the boats and with boat parts. As Home Cookin' said, there are many classifications of boaters. And each group will have their own crosses to bare. This issue isn't like others, where the question is how to fix a trim tab, or install a depth finder. This is something that will effect all of us.

 

[sickwilly]

Re: The future of boating

Well ... people a lot smarter than me on this subject just raised the rating of Brunswick stock from hold to positive, so their research says the short term is positive for boating.

Good thing they did, because when gas broke $3 bucks her in Tennessee I decided to drop all the BC stock I got for $5 a share, thinking that selling at $20 was good enough. I think now I will hold it for a while longer, selling if gas hits $4.

I may be contrairian, but if gas over $3.50 gets that *****hole that almost ran me over last 4th of July off the lake, because he wont be able to afford to run his boat, then its worth it for me to pay more.

Merc (Brunswick) played the recession just right, they will be around to supply all the parts we need.

 

[sickwilly]

Re: The future of boating

Wow ... I work at a university and surrounded by amazingly driven kids. We have thousands more that want to come than we can admit. They are driven, smart, active, and will lead this nation. We have a new manufacturing plant opening up in Chattanooga this year. We have manufacturing still going strong -- a ton of boats are made in east TN. We have caring strong parents. We have people that did not buy more house than they can afford. We have thriving Churches, stores, businesses. We (I) have equity left in my house. Sure we have unemployed and under-employed, and we just had horrible flooding -- but the American spirit is alive and well, and overall we are thriving. If its that bad where you live, come to Middle Tennessee -- we even have some darn nice lakes in trailerable distance from here.

The sky is not falling. Our youth have talent, drive, and will continue to keep America great.

Sure we have bums, but they are vastly outnumberd.

I think we all need some nice warm days on the water to help with the winter blues, is all.

 

[JimS123]

Re: The future of boating

Thanks Jim. I have seen many responses on fuel prices and how that will effect the boater in using what he/she already has, and may in his/her purchase of a smaller more fuel sipping model. But, the issue remains of what the suppliers will be like, both with the boats and with boat parts. As Home Cookin' said, there are many classifications of boaters. And each group will have their own crosses to bare. This issue isn't like others, where the question is how to fix a trim tab, or install a depth finder. This is something that will effect all of us.

Again, just my opinion since nobody really knows what the future has in store....

I personally don't think fuel prices, per se', will have the major impact. We'll still keep our boats and just bite the bullet and pay whatever it costs. Maybe take shorter rides or go less often. We'll still buy that new boat, but maybe look at fuel consumption closer when we decide on which model to buy.

Its the job market and uncertainty whether we'll be working next week that will hurt things in the long run. The mortgage still needs to be paid and now your $200,000 mortgage is on a house that currently is only worth $180,000. With that loss in equity it makes it harder to take ouit a new loan.

The housing bubble burst. Stocks have been tenuous at best. That's the next bubble to burst.

The stock pundits are not really experts....they just don't want us to know what they already know because their commissions depend on us blind sheep.

 

[wbc1957]

Re: The future of boating

The sky is not falling. Our youth have talent, drive, and will continue to keep America great.

I agree, the sky is not falling. This is about an industry that is founded more than half, by discretionary spending boaters. Having youthful talent is great! Sadly, they are way outnumbered by the older genration who is now standing at the Social Security line to get their first checks. Plus the timing couldn't be worse, with all the other entitlements to contend with. Plus, don't forget we rode the past decade on the back of the foreign countries with outsourcing not just our labor (thanks NAFTA), but our debt instruments. They don't like us. Our past three decades mirror Japan, who still hasn't recovered from their economic collapse in the 90's. Discretionary spending is not going to increase when the real jobless rate is closer to 18% and the house foreclosure rate for this year is another 4 million. Most states are in the red, which means more taxes, like what just happened in Illinois. Youthful talent is great, but not what's going to handle this industry's woes.

 

[JimS123]

Re: The future of boating

Wow ... I work at a university and surrounded by amazingly driven kids. We have thousands more that want to come than we can admit. They are driven, smart, active, and will lead this nation. We have a new manufacturing plant opening up in Chattanooga this year. We have manufacturing still going strong -- a ton of boats are made in east TN. We have caring strong parents. We have people that did not buy more house than they can afford. We have thriving Churches, stores, businesses. We (I) have equity left in my house. Sure we have unemployed and under-employed, and we just had horrible flooding -- but the American spirit is alive and well, and overall we are thriving. If its that bad where you live, come to Middle Tennessee -- we even have some darn nice lakes in trailerable distance from here.

The sky is not falling. Our youth have talent, drive, and will continue to keep America great.

And God bless you all. Now all we have to do is motivate the masses in other parts of the country that have not been that fortunate or have planned that far ahead.

 

[JimS123]

Re: The future of boating

Well ... people a lot smarter than me on this subject just raised the rating of Brunswick stock from hold to positive, so their research says the short term is positive for boating.

Merc (Brunswick) played the recession just right, they will be around to supply all the parts we need.

The stock market gurus aren't any smarter than you. They just read the annual report and studied the balance sheet. Brunswick is the smart one in the equation.

They are not a boat company. They diversified and are into lots of things. Today exercising and fitness is the thing to do for health reasons. I would venture a guess that Brunswick's marine divisions are being held above water (pun intended) ONLY because their fitness equipment business is keeping them afloat.

 

[wbc1957]

Re: The future of boating

The stock market gurus aren't any smarter than you. They just read the annual report and studied the balance sheet. Brunswick is the smart one in the equation.

They are not a boat company. They diversified and are into lots of things. Today exercising and fitness is the thing to do for health reasons. I would venture a guess that Brunswick's marine divisions are being held above water (pun intended) ONLY because their fitness equipment business is keeping them afloat.

I agree, Jim. It's just like GE is in weapon systems, and too many other product to list, including people in key places. Do you see a future where dealer networks are reduced to a Walmart type place of selling and servicing all lines? As I see it now, whole areas are void of coverage in various brands that once owned that marketshare. This will effect a buyer's thoughts.

 

[float2]

Re: The future of boating

Maybe the Mad Max movies weren't that far off base someday we'd be fighting for gas but hopefully not for a long time. Its tough for the average Joe to stay in boating especially when you are trying to raise a young family in todays depression. You are right when you say they want us all making no more than $9/hr at Wal-Mart etc. Our country's political leaders are in bed with the big business suits ie: Goldman/Sacs (sp) etc. Our country is going down the crapper and although there is talk who is doing anything about it? Maybe all the newly elected Repubs will put the brakes on all the entitlements that are sapping the middle class dry. The growing underbelly of this country ie: welfare recipients and criminal thug types that fraudulently collect SSI benefits are killing us but no one wants to address it. Sorry for the rant but it gets me going when I am trying to make an honest middle class living and I see people collect welfare and dealing drugs having nicer stuff than I do. Seems like I have less to show for my efforts than my parents did when they were my age. Back to boats I will always try to have something to float on if I can help it. It likely won't be exactly what I want but I'll make the best of it. The older I get the more I love being on the water.

 

[ovrrdrive]

Re: The future of boating

While it burns my *** to see gas going up again, I can't honestly say that when it gets to $5 a gallon it will be enough alone to make me stop taking my boat out. Right now an outing costs me $40 in the truck and about $20 in the boat. Instead of costing me $60 a trip it will cost around $100. I'll be pissed off but I won't stop going out. If anything if it keeps some of the riff-raff away from the boat ramps it will make me go more often.

What's going to hurt is when the price of gas goes up and stars affecting things like milk, bread and balony. Then I'll see my 5% raise this year get eaten up in 30% inflation. That might get me down to 1 trip a month or so...

 

[sublauxation]

Re: The future of boating

This has to be the most controlled political talk I've ever read, it was kinda nice. I'm more of the sky is falling sort at this point, the boom of the late 80's went on but the problems (medicare, pension funds, social security, entitlement....)only got bigger. We need to face the fiscal music at some point, and it wont be pretty. The kids will have to be motivated because at $9/hour they'll need a lot of overtime to make just the debt payments. Then again, I hope to be wrong.

I have an older boat, nice motor, and it's paid for. As far as parts, I admit I'd be worried about parts for the motor, this high tech crap is nice until it breaks.

 

[mitchp]

Re: The future of boating

Okay guys, it's winter and we have plenty of time to spend thinking of the coming boating season. I have posed a question in THT which should be offered here, as well. There is plenty of experience on this forum for input. Here is the post:

As we all have witnessed, the number of boat brands has dropped and the size of the boat shows are reduced. The economy is not going to get better for many years down the road, which is clear to see with the housing market still not hitting its bottom yet. Boating is a discretionary spending item, not a necessity, although many of us would disagree. As more boat manufacturers close their doors, what do you think will be the key for those remaining? And for the parts suppliers? Keep in mind, businesses stay in business to make money, not for keeping us on the water. Supply and demand issues and down time while waiting on parts issues, may be common. And the most worrisome issue may eventually be the buyer who perceives that his new boat purchase could be bad, due to a future with a builder that may not be there for the whole warranty period. I am asking for your thoughts related to this, and ask that you consider your position both currently and then as it would look five, ten, and twenty years down the road. I include these intervals because of people's planned purchases, and their past history of stepping up to larger boats as their hobby continues. Your thoughts...

I have just purchased my 2nd boat. My 1975 MFG Carefree is in pretty good shape considering its age. Boat has a 35 horse Evinrude. Buy in price? 250 bucks. Even though the economy has kicked me to the curb, my intrest in boating has found me with this low buck rig. I will be supporting the aftermarket as i purchase goodies for my new to me boat. Moral of my story, you do not have to be a wealthy person to get on the water. Mitch

 

[wbc1957]

Re: The future of boating

I have just purchased my 2nd boat. My 1975 MFG Carefree is in pretty good shape considering its age. Boat has a 35 horse Evinrude. Buy in price? 250 bucks. Even though the economy has kicked me to the curb, my intrest in boating has found me with this low buck rig. I will be supporting the aftermarket as i purchase goodies for my new to me boat. Moral of my story, you do not have to be a wealthy person to get on the water. Mitch

True enough, but the majority of people that boat or wish to boat, do not have the luxury of a small lake or river to use something as small and low powered as you. There is a large audience of boaters who have the oceans or a Great Lake to contend with. And, there are very large recreation lakes that would not be too advisable to run a rig like yours in, due to other boaters creating rough waters. This isn't a matter of solving the "me" needs, but rather looking at the industry. One must look there first, since it will dictate yours and my future in boating, based on meeting the design wanted, at the right price, availability, stability for warranty, and convienence. You didn't consider whether you will be able to maintain that boat with replacement parts, or for how long. Consider the hundreds or thousands of boats who already have discontinued power plants, or how many go fast boats are not running due to fuel costs. These are people who in one way or another, are looking at their investment as a mistake, and seeing the water from shore. Picture what that would be like for you. What will it be like for you say in five years, ten years, and even twenty?

 

[wbc1957]

Re: The future of boating

One thing I might point out is that current conditions in the US spells opportunity for non-US competitors. I look at Yamaha (whose sales have actually increased) and the build quality, the use of technology, and their ability to produce everything going into their boats all for thousands less then their competition for comparable boats and see it as the trend in the future.

I see a huge window of opportunity for a company with deep pockets to "pull a Bayliner" and redefine the boating market by using new technology (GM marine engines are anything but high tech) in the manufacturing process and in the finished product customers recieve all at lower costs than the US competition.

Our new boats may well be coming from off shore in a few years.

Yes, this has alot to do with the corporate tax rates, high regulations, and cost of labor. Canada has just started a push to gain more US companies by lowering their corporate tax rate to 25%. The US is 30% and higher. This explains the losses to foreign countries since NAFTA started. Plus, the regulations to even operate a very limited outside this country. The labor rate is also an big difference due to the union wages and benefits packages, but not the big factor compared to the taxes and regulations. Even a small business can not survive with so many government requirements to keep up on.

 

[wbc1957]

Re: The future of boating

I agree that labor and taxes are part of it but I also think US boat manufactures are doing the same things our auto makers did, stand still and let the competition from off shore out class them in both quality and the use of technology in the manufacturing process and in the finished product.

True. Any new company that wishes to have a seat at the retail table must make a better wiget to gain attention. Of course those off shore learned from our evolving technologies and so their plants run on newer designs. Also, they don't have overhead costs of regulations and the inspectors coming into the plant, so they can put more of those savings into the effort of a higher quality product for less. It still boils down to the large slice of cost of product, being an external cost not related to the actual product! Government!