Will sanctions work with Iran?

[crunch]

As much as I wish I could say yes...... No.

 

[Plainsman]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

As good as they did with Saddam and Kim.

 

[crunch]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

Ya Eric, I'm afraid we are just going through the motions with sanctions... I can't remember the last time they worked, or what, if anything, they worked about.... maybe Whaling or fishing rights.

Scary thing is, Israel has already said they will not accept a nuclear Iran, and we all know they didn't accept a nuclear Iraq.

 

[POINTER94]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

UN sanctions? You have to be joking. I wish they would put sanctions of the US and get the f*&% out of our country.

 

[crunch]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

Funny you should mention that, a lot of people in Europe wonder why the UN doesn't put sanctions on the US. for our nuclear weapons.... with the justification that we are the only country to ever use them.... how soon they forget. :%

 

[aspeck]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

I can answer that in one word - NO!

Now, let me clarify to make myself clear:

Na, nope, no way, ain't gonna work, zilch results, ....

 

[WillyBWright]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

Have sanctions ever worked? Have they ever been enforced? If anything, it only slows the inevitable. Or gives Junior an excuse to wage war.

My prediction... There will be a democrat elected for President in 2008. The day after the election, Shrub will attack Iran with reckless abandon. Then tell the President-elect "There's an early Christmast present for you. Enjoy!"

We don't need to impeach Bush so much for what he has already done as what he's likely to do.

 

[rolmops]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

Sanctions do work,but not in a straight line.
What sanctions mostly mean in this case,has to do with oil technology,a technology that comes from the USA
In order for Iran to keep its oil flowing at a high rate,it needs american technology,for maintenance and renewal of its oil field and transport gear.This technology is sanctioned.
The only thing that helps Iran circumvent sanctions is money,because everything is for sale ...at a price.
Once money gets tight because of lowered oil production,the sanctions will have effects.
The other oil nations would love for Iran to be out of the game,because it means more money for them,so they will support the sanctions in ways that will not be visible on the surface.Besides ,if you think that Iran is a threat to us,how do you think the arab sunni moslem nations in that area feel about non-arab shi-ite Iran?
Sanctions worked to end apartheid in South Africa.
Sanctions worked nicely in Iraq,it was one of the main reasons why it was so easy to occupy that country.Sanctions had caused their army to be a paper tiger.They had not been able to rebuild their strength after the first gulf war,because of sanctions they were basicly broke.
Finally,short of nuking them,there really is nothing else that we can do to make them listen.We simply do not have the militairy capacity at this point in time.

 

[Vlad D Impeller]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

Iran may be a big exporter of petroleum, but they are also a big importer of refined petroleum, reason being sanctions put in place over twenty-five years ago by the USA.
Iran's response to this predicament is to produce adequate nuclear energy to fullfill their current and future energy needs.
The big problem with that is, once a country acquries the means necessary to efficiently process uranium, what is there to prevent them from producing nuclear weapons?
On the other side of the coin, a precariously destablised Iran is not in the best interest for the USA.
The bull in the china-shop method may not lead to the result which we so badly need in that region.

 

[OLDSPUD]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

No, he, the fruit cake in Vene and the nut job in N Koera are presenting an interesting mess.

The world stage is so volatile, I fear and love it at the same time. It is so interesting to watch, it is becoming my favorite thing to read about. I would hate to be the President, what else can he do short of force . Talking is a joke, sanctions are a joke.

Spud

 

[crunch]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

Iran may be a big exporter of petroleum, but they are also a big importer of refined petroleum, reason being sanctions put in place over twenty-five years ago by the USA.
Iran's response to this predicament is to produce adequate nuclear energy to fullfill their current and future energy needs.
The big problem with that is, once a country acquries the means necessary to efficiently process uranium, what is there to prevent them from producing nuclear weapons?
On the other side of the coin, a precariously destablised Iran is not in the best interest for the USA.
The bull in the china-shop method may not lead to the result which we so badly need in that region.

Iran could have easily, over the last 25 years, done the necessary research to build their own, home grown petroleum cracking technology if that was their worry.... they didn't.

I liken them to someone that has the option of restoring a VW bug or a Formula 1.... both will get you to the store, but the F1 will cost you big time in tool up and parts, and you have to wonder about the motive if all you want to do is get to that store....

As far as "the bull in the china shop", that bull in this case will probably be Israel, they have the most to lose.

 

[MRS]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

I can answer that in one word - NO!

Now, let me clarify to make myself clear:

Na, nope, no way, ain't gonna work, zilch results, ....

100% agree with what aspeck said make that 101%...

 

[crunch]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

My prediction... There will be a democrat elected for President in 2008.

And a nuclear war in the Middle East in 2009 thru 2012... billions dead, but the libs will still be saying "can't we all get along"?

In case you didn't notice, the avowed goals of the "Terrorist Nations" (Iran and Syria), and their proxies is to establish a Caliphate encompassing the whole of the Muslin faith in a world wide Jihad to bring the pure faith to all of us Infidels.

Whether we like it or not is immaterial... convert or die.

Now, with the Democrats record of "National Security Interests vs long term social goals" Do you really wantta bet your life on them?

 

[Plainsman]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

Come on now cruch....you know we have to open dialogue with eveyone. It doesn't matter if they want to kill us all and our children..we can all be friends. That is what the left believes anyway.

 

[crunch]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

And there won't be anything LEFT for us..... sad.

 

[PW2]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

It depends what you define as "working"

Will it get Iran to stop what they are doing and cooperate? Of course not.

Sanctions are only a small part of an overall diplomatic effort.

Real change, if it was to occur, will happen from within Iran, and not from outside pressure--just as it has in Russia, Poland, East Germany, etc.

Some form of self determining government can only succeed in places with a well developed middle class, and Iran has one of those (as opposed to North Korea, which doesn't)

To the extent that Iranians think that their problems are caused by outside forces (like the USA) they will not work...to the extent that the Iranians think their problems are caused by their own government, they have the chance of working.

Things like the holocaust denial conference, as reprehensible as that is, are opportunities to show the Iranians it is their own government that is holding them back. This is the information age, and information is accessible, however difficult to obtain.

Force, whether by military action or sanctions alone, have no chance of producing a positive result.

 

[BoatBuoy]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

"Real change, if it was to occur, will happen from within Iran, and not from outside pressure--just as it has in Russia, Poland, East Germany, etc."

And all this time I thought Reagan made it all happen.

 

[PW2]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

I do give Reagan some credit, FTR. He certainly accelerated the process re the Soviets at least. Economically they could not keep up with the USA for sure, but that caused internal pressure that ultimately brought them down.

 

[crunch]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

Speaking of internal pressure bringing down a government, checkout this little gem.

Monday 25 December 2006

Washington - Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis published Monday in a journal of the National Academy of Sciences.

Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.

Iran earns about $50-billion (U.S. ) a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 per cent annually. In less than five years exports could be halved and then disappear by 2015, Mr. Stern predicted.

For two decades, far longer than its designation by U.S. President George W. Bush in January 2002 as part of the "axis of evil," the United States has deployed military forces in the region in a strategy to pre-empt emergence of a regional superpower.

Iraq was stopped in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, but a hostile Iran remains a target of U.S. threats.

The U.S. military exercises have not stopped Iran's drive. But the report said the country could be destabilized by declining oil exports, hostility to foreign investment to develop new oil resources and poor state planning, Mr. Stern said.

Mr. Stern's analysis, which appears in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, supports U.S. and European suspicions that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons in violation of international understandings. But, Mr. Stern says, there could be merit to Iran's assertion that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes "as badly as it claims."

He said oil production is declining and both gas and oil are being sold domestically at highly subsidized rates. At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/122606T.shtml

Maybe the sanctions will work, not just by themselves, but with Irans own stupidity helping out.

 

[PW2]

Re: Will sanctions work with Iran?

That could be good news, of course.

Internal pressure will be the thing that changes Iraq, if it is to change. Who cares what the source of pressure is, be it stupidity or poor planning or whatever.