Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

[cbavier]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

The industry has been riding the wave of economic prosperity for 25 years.
Now that things are back to normal, everyone wants to cry recession, and "things are bad in the industry".

Thats the result of things being too good, for too long; people forget what "normal" is, and what an economy can really support.

Now, factor in that the industry has upscaled and upsized every boat product line, and made them so fancy, and less practical; all so that they can drive up the base cost of each boat.
There will now be a reversal, or correction.

They will probably learn that they should not be building $25,000 18' aluminum freshwater fishing boats that weigh in at 2800#, and drink $80 worth of fuel an hour.

The same will hold true in all segments of the market.

I've been saying this for twenty years in the Auto Industry as well as the housing market. It would be nice if every business could break last years record year after year. But in any industry there is always a slow down which really isn't much more than a leveling off and back to normal sales. Much of it is simply supply and demand. When the supply exceeds the demand there is always going to be a slow down.

 

[mickjetblue]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

I attended a boat show, and noticed that there were fewer boats than before,
and also fewer attendees. But, there were a few sales taking place, also,
so things aren't all that bad.

I personally know folks who have sold their power boats, and gotten out of it,
and the main reason was because they can't afford the fuel and maintenance
costs anymore.

I also know folks who would like to take up boating, but can't afford it.
So, things are not all that good for the boating industry.

I think the demand is there, but the affordability isn't.

 

[MikDee]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

In a FREE market system, which the USA is-for now. The economy is a "self fulfulling phrophecy"

If you claim it as bad, so does the person you told that to and it builds and builds and builds and builds. GET THE POINT?

This is an election year. Some folks want the economy to tank so that they can induce more of their power. Others want it to increase so that they can induce their power.

I'll take the latter.

The "government" cannot stimulate the economy but it sure can WRECK it.

This is my opinion also, "Once you put the mouth on it, it's doomed"
That's why I never like to discuss issues like this, it's like the price of gas, with some people projecting it's gonna be an exhorbitant amout in the near future, Well, I'll be darned if it doesn't start to become true because someone decided to discuss it,,, to talk it up! To me, this is all self defeatist, and the more you discuss it, the worse the situation is gonna be!

 

[cbavier]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

This is my opinion also, "Once you put the mouth on it, it's doomed"
That's why I never like to discuss issues like this, it's like the price of gas, with some people projecting it's gonna be an exhorbitant amout in the near future, Well, I'll be darned if it doesn't start to become true because someone decided to discuss it,,, to talk it up! To me, this is all self defeatist, and the more you discuss it, the worse the situation is gonna be!

The News Media is probably the best at steering society to their persuasion or sway. They can influence the price of gas, the direction of Politics or any other sway they choose. I even see it in sports by the sportscasters. I'm not sure if they are sportscasters or sports News Casters but they certainly can stir up a can of worms from nothing.
I think the problem is Americans have overspent and it's catching up with them. With the use of Credit cards and Home Equity Loans and all other forms of credit. People have over extended their income. Notice my signature on this forum. My Boat may be old, and I could have bought a new one , with the help of my friendly banker but guess what. I "OWN-IT" I paid cash for it and I sleep at night because nobody can take it away from me.

 

[Silvertip]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

Expidia -- I didn't see the Starcraft Islander but then I wasn't looking for that class of boat either so that doesn't mean it wasn't there.

 

[Navy Jr.]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

My wife and I attended the Minneapolis Boat Show this week as we do nearly every year. This year we were actually looking for a boat (pontoon) so we were really interested to see 1) attendance and 2) boats. Attendance was in my view dismal at best...

We also attended that show. Not sure what day you went, but we arrived Saturday at 10:30am and the Convention Center was already quite crowded. By the time we left at 3:30pm the parking ramp was full.

They had a promotion where if you bought a boat you could register for a $5,000 cash drawing to be held Monday, 1/28/2008. We bought a new Lund and were escorted up to the registration desk on the mezzanine level. We stood in line behind a family registering ahead of us, and when it was our turn there was someone behind us.

I asked our salesman how things were going. He said he sold more high-end Ranger boats than Lund fishing boats during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of the show (he sells Ranger, Larson and Lund). On Saturday there was more action in his Lund area. Tons of people bumping all over each other. We had to stand in line every time we wanted to get aboard the model we finally ordered. It was impossible to get any pictures without other people in it.

Anyway, it feels kind of good to be among the likes of Silvertip and others who did their part to support the recreational boating industry this past week.

 

[Silvertip]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

While I don't disagree that the media can and often does play a role in the outcome of events, one can hardly not notice what's happened in the housing market. Was that the governments fault? Don't think so. Nor was it the lenders fault. Nobody held a gun to the heads of those that popped for the ARMs. The word "adjustable" means just that and and you could have bet it would be adjusted upward more than downward. Interest only mortgages and peoples general misuse of credit are also responsible for this current crisis. Industries related to housing and those working in that field are the unfortunate recipients of the downturn. Those are the people who will not likely be buying a boat this year and will likely be selling the one they have. But not talking about the economy at this time does not mean a problem doesn't exist. The value of the Canadian dollar is now greater than that of the U.S. dollar which is why our neighbors to the north are flocking down here to buy boats.

 

[cbavier]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

Silvertip.

Your absolutely correct. I also don't think it's the Governments responsibility to bail them out unless there proof people have been exploited. Nor is it the responsibility of Govt to bail out the Mortgage companies or any Big Business.

 

[MikDee]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

Silvertip.

Your absolutely correct. I also don't think it's the Governments responsibility to bail them out unless there proof people have been exploited. Nor is it the responsibility of Govt to bail out the Mortgage companies or any Big Business.

AMEN!

 

[Silvertip]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

I suspect I'm considerably older than most folks on this forum and have been through several of these crashes that have affected various sectors of the economy. Does anyone remember the telecom bubble burst of not too many years ago? How about the downsizing of the computer industry before that. Those were serious times and we recovered. We will recover from this too. Those who understand the value of watching what's going on around them will learn and prepare so they can move on to the next phase of their life -- whatever that may be. Those that don't will likely continue to gripe about how bad things are. I agree -- stop the government bail outs.

 

[Navy Jr.]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

I can appreciate the comments so far, especially those from Silvertip about the history of previous economic downturns. He mentioned some good ones, but does any one remember the days of the mid to late '70s? Talk about a housing crisis. We bought our first home in 1975. It was a builder's spec (speculation) home that had been on the market for quite a while because interest rates were so high. And that was just the beginning. Remember when rates climbed into the upper teens?

A great idea then might prove worthwhile today. To reduce the inventory of unsold new homes back then, the government came out with a plan whereby anyone who bought one of those homes qualified for a $2,000 tax credit on that year's tax return. This wasn't a deduction, mind you, but an honest to goodness tax credit right off the bottom line.

The plan worked then; I wonder if it might work today. The big difference today is interest rates are ridiculously low compared to then. Last week I actually sent an e-mail to our congressman in Washington with the idea (after explaining it was hardly original and to check the 1975 plan for details).

Regarding the media and current perceptions, I'm perhaps a little more optimistic than previous posters here. Most of us in this country are doing okay so far. Maybe it's because we aren't incredibly stupid like the media might make us out to be. We didn't buy more house than we could afford. We didn't try to make a quick buck by flipping houses. WE DIDN'T SPEND MORE THAN WE MADE. We worked hard in our careers. We put money away for retirement, for college, for vacations, for cars... and for boats. We diversified our portfolios.

We listened to our parents and grandparents.

 

[Silvertip]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

The best commentary I've seen regarding the economy is this:

"Joblesness is not due to a lack of jobs -- it is due to a lack of skills!"

To validate this, I read recently about a fellow who started a shipbuilding (actually an ocean going barge) business and had to hire skilled welders from other countries because he couldn't recruit any here. Opportunity abounds -- but people are simply refusing to upgrade or learn the skills needed to go after those jobs. Can't afford school is not a valid excuse. You can't afford NOT to cross-train these days. OK -- I'm done here. Blood pressure you know!!!!

 

[pine island fred]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

I have heard that comment before. Is it because they cant find anyone to work or they cant find anyone at the wages offered ? DAMN, wish I had the answer and would share it with everyone. Have 3 children in there 30s and wonder how things are going to play out for them.
Good friend has a large roofing company that does industrial/ commercial roofs. All of the people that work are from mexico, guatamala, equador and are provided by a company that provdes the laborers for him. Thay are not his employees. Believe me they work like dogs. Good people that do not smoke, drink, or do drugs. Dont live to good but all manage to send money home. Country has a lot of adjustment to do. Sorry I got off topic, just wanted to share observations. BTW a lot have disappeared back to there homes as there is no more work here. FRED

 

[Navy Jr.]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

Opportunity abounds -- but people are simply refusing to upgrade or learn the skills needed to go after those jobs.

This reminds me of what I've been reading lately of the "Self-Esteem" generation of the '80s. These are kids who were brought up believing they were okay no matter what. That it didn't matter if they didn't do well in whatever endeavor they were asked. We just didn't want them to get too down on themselves, right?

Now we have a generation with lots of kids who think they should be president of a company right out of school. Many of them can't read; can't write; won't do skilled labor. But, hey, they sure feel good about themselves!

Off topic. Sorry...:redface:

 

[nightstalker]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

This reminds me of what I've been reading lately of the "Self-Esteem" generation of the '80s. These are kids who were brought up believing they were okay no matter what. That it didn't matter if they didn't do well in whatever endeavor they were asked. We just didn't want them to get too down on themselves, right?

Now we have a generation with lots of kids who think they should be president of a company right out of school. Many of them can't read; can't write; won't do skilled labor. But, hey, they sure feel good about themselves!

Off topic. Sorry...:redface:

May be off topic, but you sure hit the head on the nail (oops), nail with the head (oops), head off the nail (oops), can't get it right, but I feel good about myself anyway.
Nightstalker

 

[whywhyzed]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

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[SgtMaj]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

Have 3 children in there 30s and wonder how things are going to play out for them.

I'd say pretty well. I'm in my 30's too, and I'm really looking forward to the next few years as many senior level positions are vacated by retiring baby boomers. This year marks the first wave of retirements. It is a good time to be in the workforce for sure.

 

[whywhyzed]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

....

T....

 

[Navy Jr.]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

"The issue is the high dollar," said Wayne Gates, president of Canadian Auto Workers union Local 199, which represents skilled workers at the Port Weller plant.

"The company had been extremely busy for a number of years - it had grown. But as the dollar gets higher and higher, the orders stop coming.""

I'm assuming he means the high Canadian dollar, eh?

 

[pine island fred]

Re: Just how bad off is the marine Industry?

WAYWAYZED, sorry I missed your post. To answer your question, no ! , none of them have had to retrain yet but as a parent you are always concerned about there future. All in there 30s, daughter runs the DC. board of trade. She should do well as trade in DC amounts to govt. , law firms, and lobyist. As long as people grab the tax payers $s, she should be safe.
One son works at a local small lumber yard in N.J. the type that are dissapearing fast. If and when it closes he will have some difficulty I am sure. Other son works for a private tree service so once the owner retires, he may have problems also. Hate to admit it but wish both boys would get some type of government job as it seems thats the future, everyone living off each others taxes with no real value added to the bottom line. One had/has the oppertunity to work for PA. or NJ. fixing elect. locomotives, tax payer money, but would rather cut trees. Oh, well, day time job, not like his old man fixing planes at night when all the real repairs are done. Never saw a hangar, cold nites were tough. Guess I got off the subject, sorry.
In response to BILLP, guess you see the situation with boat sales here in FL. also. I am pretty isolated on this island but see the situation especially in used boats for sale. They are everywhere and very few are out on the sound or in the gulf, water are deserted even on nice weekends. regards FRED