"Surviving the Markets"

[OldMercsRule]

Hi Folks, Great NON POLITICAL, (at least to the extent it trys to discribe the current problems we face in financial markets), read that my help ya understand a bit of this current financial problem.

The Economist is a Left leaning Brit rag, (fairly good one at that).

Hope it helps ya understand the current storm, that likely has not passed, (IMHO).


http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9646451


If yer tradin' this thing: watch yerself, n' make sure you don't mind holding what you buy if yer timing is not perfect.

As Rubber correctly states: time can be yer friend. That said: there is an old sayin' "SH*T DON'T BOUNCE". Moral of that: don't buy sh*t! Especially right now, when you have to know risks are very big, (if ya don't know that: stick with treasury bills).

This is NOT ADVICE. I only have ONE FUNCTIONAL BRAIN CELL. Be Carefull. JR

 

[snapperbait]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

Buy low....Sell high...

And most importantly.......

If you can't afford to lose, don't play the game..

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

Buy low....Sell high...

And most importantly.......

If you can't afford to lose, don't play the game..

Nah Snap, Everybody must "play the game", (not necessarily trade yer account), unless they plan to eat the cheese RubberFrog spouts off about.

Even a carefull buy n' hold investor should do a little home work n' devise a "prudent" strategy to survive these risks n' hopefully prosper in the future.

This is potentially jus' a shot accross the bow as: Rubber states, (n' he is prolly right, as he is about many things). That said: he is ALSO right about adjusting yer risk appitite downward a bit, (if ya haven't already) to reflect the much higher risks that the markets have had for the last year or so that are now in yer face, n' hard to ignore.

I have warned you guys about some of the potential problems for the whole world regarding the "mother of all demographic peaks" that is taking place in this Country in the next few years. This is a very good reason to begin to study this issue, (if ya have not previously). Nothing like a lil' volitility to get one's attention.

Harry Dent has written a number of best sellers. Mr Dent is the darlin' of Wall Street n' exagerates a lot of his predictions, (IMHO) to sell books n' investments n' all. That said: his historical part of the books I have read in the past was very good. N' there is no such thing as a road map. That said: history prepares a person with some knowledge of what has happened in the past: at the very least.

Good luck to all! Not a recomendation: (remember: only one brain cell), JR

 

[RubberFrog]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

I found dents interpretation of the '29 crash fascinating.

 

[Haut Medoc]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

John Edwards, who has called homeownership "the foundation of the American dream," said Friday he will divest his holdings in funds linked to lenders that have foreclosed on Hurricane Katrina victims.
"I will not have my family's money involved in these firms that are foreclosing on people in New Orleans," he told the Associated Press.
Edwards has reported $29.5 million in assets, millions of which are invested in the hedge fund Fortress Investment Group., a company that paid him nearly half a million dollars last year for consulting advice.
Fortress has investments in lenders that offer subprime mortgages, higher priced loans for borrowers considered greater risks. The Wall Street Journal on Friday identified 34 New Orleans homeowners who face foreclosure actions from lenders connected to Fortress.
"My reaction is I'm going to help these people," Edwards said in a telephone interview. "I just learned about this. I don't know the details, I will find out and I will find a way to help them."
Edwards has decried the predatory lending practices that sometimes accompany subprime mortgage lending, which especially target minorities and the elderly, and can tie people to home loans that they can't repay. He has built his campaign on an anti-poverty message and has toured and worked in the neighborhoods devastated by the 2005 hurricane. In fact, a three-day poverty tour he embarked on last month began in New Orleans' hardest hit Lower Ninth Ward.
Edwards worked part-time for Fortress Investment Group, getting paid $479,512. He and his wife also had $2.7 million to $8.5 million invested in a Fortress subsidiaries, according to ranges listed in his personal financial report. And Fortress executives have donated generously to his presidential campaign ? company employees have donated more than $150,000 toward his candidacy during the first six months of the year.
Asked Friday if his investments damaged his image as a poverty fighter, Edward's said: "No. Everyone knows I am completely committed to eliminating poverty in this country. I have the strongest national predatory lending proposal. These are things I will pursue."
Edwards has proposed passing federal laws to prohibit mortgage abuses and help homeowners at risk of foreclosure or bankruptcy.
Among its investments, Fortress has for some time owned a stake in Green Tree Servicing, a company that specializes in managing higher- priced mortgages for people with tarnished credit or low incomes who are considered greater risks. As home-mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures have surged in recent months, especially for subprime loans, the distress has roiled financial markets and sparked anxiety that it could spill over into the broader economy.
Green Tree and a second subprime lender acquired by Fortress, Nationstar Mortgage, were the two lenders filing foreclosure suits in New Orleans, the Journal reported.
?Associated Press Writer Jim Kuhnhenn in Washington contributed to this report.
tiiQuigoWriteAd(755777, 1290694, 600, 240, -1);

 

[RubberFrog]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

"My reaction is I'm going to help these people," Edwards said in a telephone interview. "I just learned about this. I don't know the details, I will find out and I will find a way to help them."

Efwards is a liar. I just listened to his spokesperson tell Cavuto that edwards knew about this in 2005.
Why didn't he do anything to help the 34 people whose homes were repossesed by the company he made half a million consulting for?

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

The last thing one should ever do is make investment decisions based on what a very disingenious Lawyer/Politician does, (or any other profession for that matter where ya know it is all fluff n' zero substance), that only does PUBLIC things fer the impression it generates.

John Edwards is one of the most disgusting human beings I know of, (other then John F Kerry).

It is all appearance, (IMHO), and ZERO substance. Unlike: George Soros, who is worth watching regarding investments and other things, IMHO.

Mr. Edwards has a lot of money, but not enough to move markets, (if he invests legally which one has to assume), as Mr Soros really does have that kinda money, (to move markets), and a proven ability to do what he wants to do.

My $.02. JR

 

[RubberFrog]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

Come on murky, give us one of those really long posts where you talk about the intricacies of the market- what to be careful of, what to pay attention to. I like those.

 

[Haut Medoc]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

So, ya don't think him helping these poor victims is a good thing?.....​

 

[RubberFrog]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

How was he helping them? He consulted with, and owned stock in, the company that bought their foreclosures.

 

[Haut Medoc]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

No, he said he was gonna help these poor victims now....(Future)​

 

[treedancer]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

Any hope of ever having a nonpolitical thread?

 

[Haut Medoc]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

Sorry, my bad.....​

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

Any hope of ever having a nonpolitical thread?

Really.....and hopefully we'll get one especially since the topic deserves the effort.

Say for instance.....what would you say... to a person that has a modest home in an area that at worst real estate is still rising at 5% today. Before it was 15-30%.
And has 50% of his retirement in a pretty good 401, 25% in a conservative mutual fund, and 10% in an energy CanRoy and 15% in adverse (bear market) stocks that were bought at thier lowest and are rising.

And has very modest savings account, a good job, 70% equity, no credit card debt and a FICO score of 810, (yes, it was 850, that person doubles up on any purchase payments).

Keep in mind we're only talking about a net worth of less than a mil.

And that person isn't very investment savvy.

Oh, and he'd like to retire in 8 years at 60.

 

[RubberFrog]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

I say it sounds good. How is your 401k diversified? You said the mutual fund was "conservative," so it sounds low risk. 70% equity is good. Less than a mil... that really depends on how long until retirement and what kind of lifestyle your planning for. Good credit is always a convenience.

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

I say it sounds good. How is your 401k diversified? You said the mutual fund was "conservative," so it sounds low risk. 70% equity is good. Less than a mil... that really depends on how long until retirement and what kind of lifestyle your planning for. Good credit is always a convenience.

Half of the 401 is taking a beating right now. Before it was good enough to earn 12%.
The MF is pretty safe and is also modest return.

Lifestyle?... Enough to maintain a modest lifestyle.

 

[RubberFrog]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

If you're in your thirties with plans to work until your 65, you're looking good. In your 40's... keep at it. In your fifties... make sure that home is paid off before your retire.

Of course, this is all subjective. Where I live a crackerjack fixer upper house is 500k. So a net worth of a mil doesn't add up to much for retirement.

A mil in the market could bring you an average annual income of 70k before taxes... not a bad retirement. Especially with a paid off house.

I am always leary of including the house into net worth. You can't eat the house. If you're going to sell it and move to a bunglow, then count it (minus the cost of the bungalow). I generally only consider investments in networth. Accordingly, a house is not an investment if you plan to live in it. It is simply an operational asset (if you will).

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

If you're in your thirties with plans to work until your 65, you're looking good. In your 40's... keep at it. In your fifties... make sure that home is paid off before your retire.

Of course, this is all subjective. Where I live a crackerjack fixer upper house is 500k. So a net worth of a mil doesn't add up to much for retirement.

A mil in the market could bring you an average annual income of 70k before taxes... not a bad retirement. Especially with a paid off house.

I am always leary of including the house into net worth. You can't eat the house. If you're going to sell it and move to a bunglow, then count it (minus the cost of the bungalow). I generally only consider investments in networth. Accordingly, a house is not an investment if you plan to live in it. It is simply an operational asset (if you will).

I edited my first post while you were answering it.

I'd really like to retire in 8 years, I'll be 60.
The house will be paid off in 6 years.

Keep in mind I'm very "green" in investing, however, I'm looking to jump into something soon to achieve the above goal.

So, they do call me "sir" when I come into the bank and are in awe of the FICO, they've said so many times.

Keep in mind there's no way I could bring myself to get into the markets any further then I'm in now. I'd like to put the FICO to work and buy a rental or two and I'm thinking the time may be right pretty soon......I see this as further diversification?

 

[RubberFrog]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

I would stay away from real estate. It's a long term investment. Even with a renter making the payment, it still won't cover maintenance. And don't forget taxes and insurance... or the hassle! With that said, I think we haven't seen the bottom of real estate. Give it a few more years and reconsider.

A paid off house goes a long way towards making a comfortable retirement! So you'll have that nailed. Are you willing to take the SS hit by retiring early?

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: "Surviving the Markets"

I would stay away from real estate. .... Are you willing to take the SS hit by retiring early?

Thanks for the advice I'm sure I will heed it especially since the wife of 32 years is a lot less adventuresome then I.

I think I'll be able to be able to take the SS hit, as far as I know.
One of my upcoming projects is to pour a slab and install an above ground hoist to suppliment my income with cash jobs here and there after I retire.

Thanks for sharing your qualified advice.