Volatility in the markets in September

[OldMercsRule]

Hey folks, I talked a bit about defining yer "Investment Philosophy" while the sun was a shinnin' and ya could make some fairly comfortable adjustments to yer risk profile, (if ya so choose) before things got a bit more dicy. BTW: it is not too late: Mrs Jones.

The jobs numbers gives the initial appearance the housing issue is having some effect on the rest of the economy. The figures are usually adjusted and revised, but a strong market would not have paid much attention, (IMHO).

Many people have a cornsiderable amount of their "financial" assets in their 401-k or IRA's. Many use "open ended" mutual funds. I warned ya about potential problems with open ended "bond (mutual) funds" earlier.

Open ended stock mutual funds are also quite popular and in "normal" markets they usually work very well. This market may stay in the range I just called "normal", but if it does not it may help some of you to understand some of the weakness of an "open ended" stock mutual fund.

#1 The trade execution is at the end of the day, (at the price at that point in time), n' all the "big boys n girls" know that IMPORTANT FACT where many small investors do not, or may not understand the huge disadvantage that puts ya in if ya value CORNTROL of yer money as ol' Murky sure does.

A. Implication: If ya wanna great deal, (ya think it's a great deal anyhoo), ya buy when the market is down mid day, and it rallies after yer order and ya pay a lot more at the market close. VERY IRRITATING!

B. If ya panic 'cause ya didn't adjust yer risk prior to a very bad day in the market, ya may get a very bad price at the close on the day you panic, (which is likely the day everyone else panicked too). Murphy's law!!

I favor "ETFs" or exchange traded funds, in many cases, as you can trade them when the market is open, (I don't like after market orders). You can specify limits or use stop loss orders as ya can with individual listed stocks. The beauty of the ETFs is ya have a potentially diversified portfolio, (look at the underlying portfolio structure and expenses) and a chart of past trading performance.

If yer assets are in a non IRA or 401-K ponder the tax implications PRIOR ta pullin' the trigger: Mrs Jones, or ya could be VERY sorry next 4/15!!

As always ya need to understand the process, n' be comfortable with major financial decisions, or you should hire someone to help ya, or just stay in t bills n' hide. Remember: Bulls n' Bears make money, (they have some "Bear" oriented ETFs too Mrs Jones), Pigs generally go broke. Good luck, (this is not a specific recomendation). You would be purdy fooooooooolish takin' tips from a feller with only one brain cell. JR

 

[JB]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Remember, folks. Every time someone smart or lucky makes a buck trading somebody dumb or unlucky loses that buck.

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Remember, folks. Every time someone smart or lucky makes a buck trading somebody dumb or unlucky loses that buck.

I dissagree. That is a common miscornception: JB. Investing is NOT a ZERO sum "GAME". It is usually win win. Pure price speculation (which is fairly rare), can work the way you stated.

In commodities future corntracts or option corntracts if everyone were just speculating and no one were "hedging" your statment would be correct.

The fact is that "speculation" is a fairly small part of commodities trading as those markets mainly function to give the origional producer or holder some visability as to future price to be recieved in an uncertian market, so the producer or holder can lock up a known transaction instead of waiting and recieving an unknown price fer their property. The other side is the secondary producer of a product containing the primary commodity can lock up the price of a basic component required to produce said product at a future date price certian.

Raw speculation on just the price move can be zero sum as you state.

Most Cornventional investments in 401-ks and IRAs are NOT ZERO SUM and are win win, for every player in the process, (including the person, [investor], company or the whole Country or World). Respectfully, JR

 

[ricksrster]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

The last quarter of any year the stock market tends to dip. The cricket outside my window says it won't be a disaster, hang in there.

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

The last quarter of any year the stock market tends to dip.

Nah, I never saw such a clear cut pattern, (although I have learned not to underestimate yer knowledge of finance: Rick).

September n' October tend to be transitional months, as a lot of price movements of liquid securities are based on market psychology. Strong markets in the bullish phase go up in the last or any quarter, (for that matter). Weak markets can hammer ya when volume traditionally increases from the 'dog days' of summer, (investors are on vacation), to when the kiddies go back ta school. September and October are the two weakest months (price wise) over the last 100 years. December is the STRONGEST, (Santa Clause anyone)?


The cricket outside my window says it won't be a disaster, hang in there.

I don't think there is any likely disaster either: Rick, (but I sure dunno, n' I don't have a smart cricket as you do). That said: 2/3 of this economy, (the world's largest) is driven by the Cornsumer. The Cornsumer is greatly effected by the availability and price of credit. Fer many reasons, (one of which is sub prime loans n' how they are packaged fer resale in the securities markets), we have run low on credit. Yer pals in the Fed are tryin' ta help now. That is something ta ponder don't ya think: MRS JONES!!! Respectfully, JR

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Larry Kudlow 'splains what ol' Murky is somewhat corncerned 'bout here, (not denyin' Rick's cricket's forcastin' acumen: Mrs. Jones!!).

Batten down those hatches: mates!! She could blow a bit!!!!

"Now Is the Time to Fix Economy"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/09/now_is_the_time.html

 

[Bigprairie1]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Murky, will the U.S Fed lower interest rates again? and if so...for how long? (This impacts us up North and the Bank of Canada tends to follow suit.....usually has to, given the economic interdependency)

 

[RubberFrog]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

I think they will. The fed only has two ways to increase the money supply- lower rates or buy back t-bills.

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

With credit card debt at an all time high and savings at an all time low, isn't the consumer (" 2/3 of this economy, (the world's largest) is driven by the Cornsumer.") kinda tapped out?

 

[Bigprairie1]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

With credit card debt at an all time high and savings at an all time low, isn't the consumer (" 2/3 of this economy, (the world's largest) is driven by the Cornsumer.") kinda tapped out?

....You would think the 'cornsumer' would be tapped out, but apparently not. I always wonder about that with respect to the housing prices (at least around here) still going up. I don't know where 1st time buyers are getting the cash to buy a $500k house....and a driveway full of new cars. You would think it has to end, but it seems the purchasing spree is continuing.
Around these parts it is partially fueled by people trading in some equity on their newly found real estate wealth, due to the continuing rise in values, and heading out shopping with the cash. I'm too frugal for that myself....it's interesting to watch and wonder about tho'.

 

[Haut Medoc]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

There's alot going on out here.....
The 'Lazy B' is booming, we have Microsoft millions, some biotech stuff.....
Now if the Mariners could win some games......​

 

[ANIMAL]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Some day all that credit is going to bite us in the butt. You can only run a business in the red for so long before you go bellie up and I belive thats what is going to happen before long. Our economy is based on credit because the government runs on credit. The credit card companies want you to belive that the only way to spend money is with their card. I personaly have no credit what so ever and don't want none. If I can't pay cash for something I don't want it. If I buy something on line I use my girlfriends debit card and just put the money in her account. And now they think they can charge you extra when you pay in cash. They want that card number so they can keep track of how much money you have and how you spend it. When the economy falls it won't hurt me at all, nothing to lose and everything to gain. The poor will be rich and the rich will be poor. Money never made a man rich anyway. You can buy more with bad credit than you can with no credit. I just don't belive that I should pay a credit card company for the privledge of spending my own money. I guess if they do away with cash and make us all go to useing a card I'll go totaly underground. When my S.S.I. comes in I will go straight to the bank and pull it all out { and by the time I get it the first check it will be for about 15 grand and if they tell me I can't take it all out at one time I'll stand there and take it out a little at a time untill its all safely tucked away at home. There will only be left what it takes to keep the account open for the next check. Cash rules and its only good in your pocket...ANIMAL

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Murky, will the U.S Fed lower interest rates again? Dunno. and if so...for how long? Dunno. (This impacts us up North and the Bank of Canada tends to follow suit.....usually has to, given the economic interdependency)

As Rubber stated they will likely try to increase the money supply and systemic "confidence" by carfully surveying what the markets need and then providing what they need. Short term tactics are prolly less important then how the longer term things fall into place.

Falling housing prices and tighter credit, (in that specific sector is not all bad). Gravity had to assert itself at some point don't ya think: Mrs. Jones?


If the fallout can largely be corntained to jus' the housin' sector n' all those speculators could get crushed it would work to our collective advantage. The fact that the "securtization" of the mortgage securities themselves is causin' such trouble is the larger problem that hopefully we can jus' ride out with a lil' greeeeeeeeeeeze on the ol' skids.

The Fed and the Treasury, (remember Robert Rubin), popped the dot.com bubble and handed George Bush a recession that the MSM and the dim wits tried to use with the 9/11 hit to the economy to tell us it was worse the 1929 to try to get the KGB man elected. They will try again or I don't know my good bud that totally owns the modern Democrat party: George Soros.

I hope they don't really give us a headache, if the wheels come off here and give us the "Joseph Stalin" verson of "FDR". If the Fed can manuver jus' right Harry Dent's upside could be created if enough funds flow and the cornfidence stays jus' right: Mrs. Goldylocks er a I mean Mrs. Jones. It is gonna be interestin' I say! Batten down those hatches. She gonna blow, n' if the sail is set jus' right maybe ya get ta sail fer a bit.

As to the "bill commin' due", no doubt it may come due some day. The demographic peak I talked a bit about could bring these bills home ta momma some day, but those immigrants could help ta pay 'em. Wish I really knew what would happen. Frankly: I DON'T. Good luck, JR

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

With credit card debt at an all time high and savings at an all time low, isn't the consumer (" 2/3 of this economy, (the world's largest) is driven by the Cornsumer.") kinda tapped out?

One would think, but that is always the $50 question, (and ya coulda said that many many times before, [mid 1960s to present], when things were much worse then they are right now). We are in a very dangerious time, (financially speaking), and we are in a very dangerious time, (militarily, [and sadly: politically], speaking).

One needs to began to think critically if one want's to survive, as the credit party may come to an end some day, (but THEN AGAIN: it may not). Dim wits and victims may not do sooooooo well if they win: Mrs. Jones. Do you really have cornfidence a socialist surrender monkey could lead ya to prosperity? Look fer an opportunity ta short the whole system if a dim wit gets elected, as George Soros does not mean to help us: Mrs. Jones. Murky may not understand much but he really does get that minor lil' point.

'Course Big money allready knows what I just stated. Oh No BIG MONEY where's Hillary or Obama or John Edwards when ya need 'em?

Try not to borrow money fer anything that is not: "mission critical". Try to have personal reserves in all "mission critical" areas within one's own reach. What is "mission critical"? Mrs Jones: that is a very personal question that can only be answered by the person yer lookin' at in the mirror!!

Good luck out there!! JR

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

OMR, will you be more specific on what you mean "dangerous times" (financially) please?

 

[valkyr]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Remember, folks. Every time someone smart or lucky makes a buck trading somebody dumb or unlucky loses that buck.

Well that explains where my dollars keep going....

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

OMR, will you be more specific on what you mean "dangerous times" (financially) please?

Way too limited space and time to thoroughly explain. But Harry Dent's latest book, (RubberFrog may know the actual title), will help ya start to know what causes me such cornsternation. After ya read it let's talk on the tele! (I PMed ya me telle do ya still have it)? I'll talk to ya prior to readin' it if ya want!

The 77 million baby boomers now running this Great Country are getting older. Many don't save, and many think of credit as: money in the bank instead of the anchor it can be, (unless ya make more real after tax money then the bank does), AND ya get outa hock by cashin' in the investment n' PAY OFF THE LOAN before the music stops, (if it stops). As they age, (they are collectively rapidly approaching a huge change in life that WILL HAVE PROFOUND IMPACTS on everyone reading this post now matter where ya live on Planet Earth), the systemic effects on the system will began to have BIG effects WITHIN the next 10 years IM not so HO.

The easiest way to ABUSE credit is to lever up a single family home. Don't be shocked that it has happened: MRS JONES. It may not be over if the Fed "saves us" too well. The pain in housing (could), actually be good fer us.

The political angle that you did not want a comment on is a VERY BIG PART OF THE DEAL. The dim wits and George Soros stopped a very rational proposal by George Bush that actually would have helped solve part ot the low savings problem we all collectively have.

Dim wits want crisis Skinny! It helps them gain power. They knew the privatization of SS was VERY reasonable, and would have helped one of our many "mission critical" problems at the national level. They stoped it in favor of more Kool aid, and we have a very dangerious game of ponzi goin' on right NOW. JR

 

[Haut Medoc]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Way too limited space and time to thoroughly explain. But Harry Dent's latest book, (RubberFrog may know the actual title), will help ya start to know what causes me such cornsternation. After ya read it let's talk on the tele! (I PMed ya me telle do ya still have it)? I'll talk to ya prior to readin' it if ya want!

The 77 million baby boomers now running this Great Country are getting older. Many don't save, and many think of credit as: money in the bank instead of the anchor it can be, (unless ya make more real after tax money then the bank does), AND ya get outa hock by cashin' in the investment n' PAY OFF THE LOAN before the music stops, (if it stops). As they age, (they are collectively rapidly approaching a huge change in life that WILL HAVE PROFOUND IMPACTS on everyone reading this post now matter where ya live on Planet Earth), the systemic effects on the system will began to have BIG effects WITHIN the next 10 years IM not so HO.

The easiest way to ABUSE credit is to lever up a single family home. Don't be shocked that it has happened: MRS JONES. It may not be over if the Fed "saves us" too well. The pain in housing (could), actually be good fer us.

The political angle that you did not want a comment on is a VERY BIG PART OF THE DEAL. The dim wits and George Soros stopped a very rational proposal by George Bush that actually would have helped solve part ot the low savings problem we all collectively have.

Dim wits want crisis Skinny! It helps them gain power. They knew the privatization of SS was VERY reasonable, and would have helped one of our many "mission critical" problems at the national level. They stoped it in favor of more Kool aid, and we have a very dangerious game of ponzi goin' on right NOW. JR

I'll just bet the corporte capitalists would love to get their hands on all that Gubmint money.....
The S&L scandal & our present crisis shows that left to their own devices, the "Money Men" are out for themselves, & will whine about Gubmint corntrols, then whine to get bailed out when they screw up....
I, for one, am glad that the evil scheme that Duhbya & Co. tried to foist upon the American people was thwarted.....

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

I'll just bet the corporte capitalists would love to get their hands on all that Gubmint money.....

Hmmmmmmmmm, Bro. I can never tell if yer jus' bein' cynical or pullin' yer slow Bro's chain. The money would no longer belong to the Gubmint if ya look at the matter clearly. The Baffoon is the one who wanted it in the "LOCK BOX". 'Course those of us with a functional brain cell knew their is no Social Security "TRUST FUND" the Baffoon was trickin' the Kool aid drinkers n' dim wits about that.


The S&L scandal & our present crisis shows that left to their own devices, the "Money Men" are out for themselves, & will whine about Gubmint corntrols, then whine to get bailed out when they screw up....

Very very different situations: Bro!

I, for one, am glad that the evil scheme that Duhbya & Co. tried to foist upon the American people was thwarted.....

Libertarian ya say: YAH RIGHT!

Then you are glad our savings rate is sooooooooo low then. I guess ya wanna real BIG crisis so ya can take all the property of BIG _________. Ya don't really think they will stop with BIG ________ do ya? I have a bridge fer sale BRO!!! JR

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: Volatility in the markets in September

Way too limited space and time to thoroughly explain. But Harry Dent's latest book, (RubberFrog may know the actual title), will help ya start to know what causes me such cornsternation. After ya read it let's talk on the tele! (I PMed ya me telle do ya still have it)? I'll talk to ya prior to readin' it if ya want!

The 77 million baby boomers now running this Great Country are getting older. Many don't save, and many think of credit as: money in the bank instead of the anchor it can be, (unless ya make more real after tax money then the bank does), AND ya get outa hock by cashin' in the investment n' PAY OFF THE LOAN before the music stops, (if it stops). As they age, (they are collectively rapidly approaching a huge change in life that WILL HAVE PROFOUND IMPACTS on everyone reading this post now matter where ya live on Planet Earth), the systemic effects on the system will began to have BIG effects WITHIN the next 10 years IM not so HO.

The easiest way to ABUSE credit is to lever up a single family home. Don't be shocked that it has happened: MRS JONES. It may not be over if the Fed "saves us" too well. The pain in housing (could), actually be good fer us.

The political angle that you did not want a comment on is a VERY BIG PART OF THE DEAL. The dim wits and George Soros stopped a very rational proposal by George Bush that actually would have helped solve part ot the low savings problem we all collectively have.

Dim wits want crisis Skinny! It helps them gain power. They knew the privatization of SS was VERY reasonable, and would have helped one of our many "mission critical" problems at the national level. They stoped it in favor of more Kool aid, and we have a very dangerious game of ponzi goin' on right NOW. JR

Thanks, again I'm reminded about Dent's book.

And who is Mrs. Jones?

BTW, I've refered to this website over the years. I don't know if it has anything here to interest you or not.
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/summary-b.htm