Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

[KETELS]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

What I do is get on the computer and bring up the 600 mile radar screen.
If it looks good I go. What bothers me most is high winds or lightning.

 

[Dakota47]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

So what did you catch??

 

[bjcsc]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

Originally Posted by bjcsc
You may or may not already know this, but 30% chance means that 30% of a given area will get rain, not that 30% of the time the exact same conditions existed it rained...interesting, huh?...

I've learned something new today.
Never even thought about that way of forecasting..
I'd like to read that information....... Interesting

I learned that from one of our local meteorologists when I was working on a City Ordinance. Here's more than you probably wanted to know: Forecasts...

 

[Campylobacter]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

You may or may not already know this, but 30% chance means that 30% of a given area will get rain, not that 30% of the time the exact same conditions existed it rained...interesting, huh?...

I learned that from one of our local meteorologists when I was working on a City Ordinance. Here's more than you probably wanted to know: Forecasts...

The citation you provided seems to contradict this, here is a quote from the linked article:

"The National Weather Service defines the probability of precipitation as ?the likelihood of occurrence (expressed as a percentage) of a measurable amount of liquid precipitation during a specified period of time at any given point in the forecast area. . . Thus, a 30% chance of rain does not mean that it will rain tomorrow in 30% of the area or 30% of the time. Rather, it means that when the weather conditions are like today, at least a minimum amount of rain (such as .2 mm or .01 in.) will fall the next day in 3 out of 10 cases"

 

[jojo999]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

I'd probably go out, but like the others said, the big question is regarding lightening and if your boat is properly equipped to take a strike

/George
Argo Boat Co

 

[bjcsc]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

The citation you provided seems to contradict this, here is a quote from the linked article:

"The National Weather Service defines the probability of precipitation as ?the likelihood of occurrence (expressed as a percentage) of a measurable amount of liquid precipitation during a specified period of time at any given point in the forecast area. . . Thus, a 30% chance of rain does not mean that it will rain tomorrow in 30% of the area or 30% of the time. Rather, it means that when the weather conditions are like today, at least a minimum amount of rain (such as .2 mm or .01 in.) will fall the next day in 3 out of 10 cases"

You read the footnote cited right after that paragraph, right? There are three definitions and different people use different ones. Not to get too far OT, but much of the confusion is in the probability itself (scientific vs. non-scientific)(subjective probabilities)...it's not as cut and dry as most people think. Here's more...

 

[SS MAYFLOAT]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

For many years I too was plaqued by "Do we go or not?" Then we got a cabin cruiser and now it just doesn't matter anymore We can still fish at the dock if the wind/rain is bad........SS

 

[Expidia]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

Great question. First, if thunder showers are predicted then I will only go out if they are predicted to be scattered and the type that are not associated with lightening and no sudden gusts especially when they say gusts are expected to be 40-60 mph range .

I don't like days that the winds are blowing in certain directions either (like north or south around here) and when they are over 15-20 MPH. I'd rather deal with an on an off shower than wind and big waves.

I don't much take to much heed in the weather reports. As another poster said they are much the same the whole day even though the weather patterns can change quickly. Secret: weather reports always try to scare you enough to stay glued to their program . . . Why? so you can view their advertising of course. Ever notice when a storm has just hit (like a snowstorm) they always say there is always another one right behind it??? stay tuned!

What I do is look at the local radar west of me to see what I might expect to blowing over me in a few hours.

I find most of this activity tends to pass north of me where I'm located so I usually go anyway but stay close to a port for a quick safe haven where we can tie up and get off the water.

I also added a fixed VHF radio with an 8 foot antenna which will pull in Coast Guard weather breakin alerts many miles before storms reach me just because weather conditions can change in a heartbeat around here.

I'm able to pull up the National Weather radar on my Treo 755 PDA. Just yesterday, they predicted 82 degrees and clear before we left home an hour South of Lake George. As soon as I got on the water the skies darkened and I checked the radar picture and a band of red and yellows cells were moving through the area so we just pulled up to a restaurant, had lunch and avoided the down pour over the next hour. Sun came back and we went cruising only to see another band come though so I put up the enclosure and we were able to salvage the day by cruising for another few hours in periods of on and off light rain.

So I tend to only stay home if lightening, high winds or bands of cell activity that are so widespread that there would be no where to escape.

One last point: we left the restaurant when the cell activity past the region we were in yesterday. Oddly enough more bands seemed to develop on the radar map out of no where and that's why we had more rain hit us.

So none of this is a perfect science, but don't screw around with lightening.

My Wife and I watched several boats go by us in the driving rain yesterday "pulling kids on tubes" and it was thundering all around us at the time. Luckily, there was no lightening yesterday.

When it comes to lightening and knowing when to be on or off the water . . . Be really aware of what MORON parents you might let your kids go boating with!
There are plenty of morons around, I see them every time I go boating. Don't let anyone in your family become a statistic because you thought the captain knew what he was doing. 90% of them don't IMO.

Always check the radar at Weather.gov for your areas local radar for the type of rain before you go out. Here is a snapshot of what I saw this AM and why I chose to stay home today. It's because of the widespread cell activity in the ones in red, yellow and orange colors that kept me home.

Like I said before, even though there are no patterns to the west of me right now. What can happen because we have very humid hot conditions today cells can form instantly right over us because of the hot humid air rising and hitting the cooler air higher up. You won't see that happening quick enough to get out of harms way on mountain lakes!

I can pull up this same picture on my Treo, but by that time I'm already on the water so check it BEFORE you leave:

 

[CATransplant]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

Here in Minnesota, predictions of rain in the Summer months mean thunderstorms. I'm not a fan of being on the lake during a thunderstorm, especially in a 12' aluminum boat. I might go fishing on a day where there was a 30% chance of a storm in the area. Most likely, it will pop up somewhere I'm not. But, if the clouds start building anywhere near me (meaning I can see them), I head for the dock and load up.

8 out of 10 times, I don't have to do that, so I go ahead and go if other conditions are favorable. Sadly, they often aren't, since thunderstorms are usually accompanied by wind, and I hate wind.

 

[mike176]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

In Florida during the summer you would be best to bet its going to rain every afternoon. You just break for lunch and the sun will be back out befor you know it.

 

[ebry710]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

In Northern California it doesn't rain much during boating season and 30% isn't considered much of a chance of rain.

 

[jay_merrill]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

If I stayed at home every time there is a 30% chance of rain here in south Louisiana, I would do just as well to sell the boat and take up a new hobby! I am more concerned with wind and thunderstorms. The t-storms, however, are also a fact of life here, so you just have to pay attention to how big they are and where they are. The little ones aren't too much of a big deal but I don't mess with the big ones.

I was out this morning on mission for the USCG and the chance of rain was .... you guessed it ... 30%!

 

[ovrrdrive]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

As already mentioned, this time of year in FL there are going to be showers every afternoon. We just head out as early as we can and fish till the sky turns black and head in as fast as the boat will go.

We were out Saturday and the lightning started in the distance, and I finally heard the rods start buzzing. That was an erie feeling. I've heard people say that before but sure enough every rod tip on the boat was singing. We packed up and ran in.

 

[fixb52s]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

I went out yesterday with a 60% chance of storms. Looking at the radar, it was all north. We went out early and actually saw the storms hit land north of us. You could not even see the city, but we were on an island on the bay and the weather was perfect. Later when we headed back it all seemed good until about a mile from the launch. The clouds just came in so quickly and we ended up getting really wet. That sucked.​

 

[tommays]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

Well


Last week we had a waterspout in Nortport Harbor SO i was REALLY happy i stayed home

And on Wednesday we went out and a cliff like cloud desended on us like a spaceship was going to beem us up THEN it rained like heck and the sun came back out

 

[amynbill]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

Absolutely, we go out when there is anything less than 100% chance ;-)

However, we are on an inland lake that barely gets any kind of chop, and while is rains, all boats make a bee line to raft up under the I-84 bridge structure. Drop anchor, party up. Stops raining for a while and go wakeboarding/skiing/tubing, starts again jump under the bridge...

Of course, the lake is over 10 miles long, so GETTING to the bridge in a downpour kinda sucks, but once there, it is actually pretty fun hanging. In 8 or so boating sessions so far this year, we have had to duck under 3 times, for about an hour cumulatively each time.

 

[DRIFTER_016]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

Well


Last week we had a waterspout in Nortport Harbor SO i was REALLY happy i stayed home

And on Wednesday we went out and a cliff like cloud desended on us like a spaceship was going to beem us up THEN it rained like heck and the sun came back out

In 1993 I spent a week in the Fla. Keys fishing and there is always a chance of rain there. On one charter out of Key West we had numerous thunder showers and it was quite windy. At one point I counted 4 or 5 water spouts to the south. I asked the captain about fishing in bad weather and if they ran in when storms were around..............his answer was if we ran in every time it rained or stormed we would never go fishing. I never felt in danger but we were on a custom 47 Buddy Davis, I wouldn't want to be out there in a small CC though.

 

[ebry710]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

If you own a boat, you might get wet.

 

[reelfishin]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

A 30% chance of rain wouldn't stop me but I'd either maybe change my route or fishing hole just in case. It would depend on where I am heading too.
I'd worry more about a high wind forcast or severe storm watch than just a chance of rain. I normally watch the skys although I've been caught completely off guard a few times by sudden storms in the bay. I've also watched near black skies totally pass around me and never let go a drop. I've had some of my best fishing days on days they predicted rain, it often lessens fishing pressure since so many others just stay home!

 

[KeyWestBoater]

Re: Do you go ou with a 30% chance of rain?

Here in NE Florida in the summer most days is probably 30% or more of rain and scattered T-storms. Went out yesterday and up to around noon it was real gray with some light rain and a little thunder, We went back to the dock and had lunch waiting to see what the weather was going to do. It cleared up very nicely and we had a beautiful day, the water was like glass. We stayed out until around 6pm. Glad we didn't come in at lunch!